"At the end of life we will not be judged by how many diplomas we have received, how much money we have made, how many great things we have done. We will be judged by, 'I was hungry and you gave me to eat. I was naked and you clothed me. I was homeless and you took me in.'" - Mother Teresa
As the Native Americans reminded us: "No tree has branches so foolish as to fight among themselves."
To all the people who show up at McCain-Pain rallies and chant bigotry and send virulent anti-Obama emails here is what I have to say to you:The saddest, strangest thing I've ever seen is this pretend "Conservative political agenda" put forth by right-wing hatred. It is the furthest thing from American or Christian. One day you'll know this. While your heroes like Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly get $25 million a year in salary to spew right-wing hatred, you don't even stop to ask why. Why are they so angry at liberals? Why are they siding with a Republican agenda? Could it have something to do with being against corporate tax cuts and on the side of big business? Could it have something to do with their salaries? They are being paid very highly for lying. Follow the money. Use your brain and think independently.
You are not an American, nor are you a "Christian" if you believe Muslims are less than human, if you believe it's okay to bomb innocent people in the name of patriotism or if you think Christ would ever condone war, guns, greed or NOT helping the poor. We are all one race: Human. Fundamentalism itself is the anti-Christ but they've tricked you into believing differently.
Several Republicans agree that McCain and Palin have gone too far and have become the face of hatred. John McCain voted against giving WOMEN EQUAL PAY FOR EQUAL WORK! John McCain voted against health care for low-income children 5 years in a row. Most republicans voted for the bipartisan health care program but McCain, who takes more medicare and veterans benefits than any GI, doesn't believe in helping the poor.
Even Republican Frank Schaeffer says McCain and Palin are out of line:
"We will hold you responsible.
"If your campaign does not stop equating Sen. Barack Obama with terrorism, questioning his patriotism and portraying Mr. Obama as "not one of us," I accuse you of deliberately feeding the most unhinged elements of our society the red meat of hate, and therefore of potentially instigating violence.
"Sarah Palin is a hatemonger. Your rallies are beginning to look, sound, feel and smell like lynch mobs."
John McCain, you're walking a perilous line. If you do not stand up for all that is good in America and declare that Senator Obama is a patriot, fit for office, and denounce your hate-filled supporters when they scream out "Terrorist" or "Kill him," history will hold you responsible for all that follows.
John McCain and Sarah Palin, you are playing with fire, and you know it. You are unleashing the monster of American hatred and prejudice, to the peril of all of us. You are doing this in wartime. You are doing this as our economy collapses. You are doing this in a country with a history of assassinations.
Change the atmosphere of your campaign. Talk about the issues at hand. Make your case. But stop stirring up the lunatic fringe of haters, or risk suffering the judgment of history and the loathing of the American people - forever.
**************
Today I went down to the new Obama headquarters and bought more merchandise. Put OBAMA-BIDEN 08 lawn signs up and my OBAMA magnet on the car. I was wearing an Obama button in the grocery store but the cashier begged me to give it to her, so I did.
You can reach my Home page at: LYDIA CORNELL
And for SPIRITUAL SOLUTIONS to the world crises, along with some amazing prayer miracles in the next few weeks, please check out my other blog THE PEACEMAKERS* LIGHT OF TRUTH
Lydia just as Fear can stop progress;
ReplyDeleteSo is "denile" not just a river in Egypt.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteMCH, the small investor did NOT start the crash back when Lehman, Merril, AIG all basically collapsed on the same weekend.
No one said it was just the "small investor" Clif.
Thats your straw argument that you require to prop up your "sky is falling" tirades.
In fact, you purposely ignore what I ACTUALLY said, in favor of your straw argument.
What "I" said, was it was FOREIGN INVESTORS pulling their funds out of US Mortgage backed SECURITIES, which is precisely what it was.
Please don't invent straw arguments to sell your fearmongering. At least not when addressing my arguments.
Bart, i'm going to address your responses on the previous thread
ReplyDeleteSorry bart but the only people we could even influence is the small investor,
ReplyDeletebecause hedge funds and other large financials use computer programs and high order math models to set their buy and sell orders, so arguing NOT to speak the truth at the moment because it causes panic is only effective IF your speaking of the small investor.
NOT a straw argument but an intelligent deduction.
Fear is what the congress used in October, to lock down mortgage lending.
ReplyDeleteThat had the desired effect of causing real estate investors to default on tens of thousands of mortgages for investment properties.
That had the effect of reducing the value US mortgage backed securities, which in turn created a panic, causing foriegn investors to pull their monies out.
That in turn cause the securties to do more than just drop value from the increase in loan defaults on the mortgages backing these securities. When foreign investors pulled their funds out, the securities TANKED.
This in turn caused big conglomerates like AIG who invested billions into these now devalued securities to lose huge amounts and as a result, cash flow froze up and their credit rating tanked.
That in turn causes smaller groups, and on and on and on.
The wealth we lost in the stock market over the last few weeks has been because investors pulled their monies out of the stocks for their fear.
At the end of the day, Lydia is right about this one. This IS fear.
There were some fires but they were manageable.
It was the fear mongering that caused the stock market to lose over a trillion dollars over the last few weeks. And it was the fear mongering that caused lending to freeze up starting last October, which lead to the mess we're seeing now.
Fear and fear mongering are the enemy.
:|
Now where's my pursers pistol?
That last parts a joke clif.
ReplyDeleteMike said...
ReplyDeleteBart, i'm going to address your responses on the previous thread
No do it here please. Lydia I think wants comments in here.
bart, AIG tanked BEFORE the congressional action Henry Paulson sent them as a result of Lehman on September 15, 2008, Merril, AIG and of course fannie and freddie before so your statement suggests about October.
ReplyDeleteFacts do matter.
Fear mongering is NOT what is happening deleveraging is what is happening ALL OVER the PLANET, and that is why I spoke of denial.
ReplyDeleteThere were some fires but they were manageable.
ReplyDeleteNO they were NOT especially the way you have suggested.
The world has too much debt leveraged, and hedged which can't be supported by the assets behind it.
It is much more massive then the US housing market, that was just the canary in the coal mine.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteSorry bart but the only people we could even influence is the small investor,
because hedge funds and other large financials use computer programs and high order math models to set their buy and sell orders, so arguing NOT to speak the truth at the moment because it causes panic is only effective IF your speaking of the small investor.
No clif, it spreads panic. While you may or may not be directly influencing a large investor (you never know who's reading your words on the internet) you certainly are a "cog in the wheel".
Panic is a shared emotion.
Panic spreads, like wildfire in dry brush.
And panic is caused by speaking truth or lies, at the wrong time.
:|
The Supreme Court ruled that crying "FIRE" in a crowded theatre was akin to inciting riot.
They said that even though there is a fire, the people screaming "FIRE" are more dangerous to the well being of the patrons than the fire itself.
We know there are problems. We know what those problems are.
But crying panic, predicting doom and constant gloom, is what spreads the fear and panic, and makes you akin to the guy standing in the crowded theatre, yelling "FIRE FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!".
You and everyone needs to chill.
Queit cool in the face of real disaster.
There are problems, but we've had problems before. And we've worked through them before.
Panic is right now, our biggest problem. No ones debating that there aren't other things to fix, but as I've tried to drill into your head, you DON'T rebuild the Jet Liner in mid flight.
You bring it safely to a landing, deplane the passengers safely, THEN you worry about redesigning the aircraft.
Panic is our enemy. And you're spreading panic.
Clif said...
ReplyDeleteFIRE FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!
Stop panicing.
The reason foreign investors are pulling out here is the same reason they have pulled out of Iceland bankrupting ALL their banks, and why 5 Major banks in Europe have crashed, too much toxic CDS and derivative debt, only a little of it included sub-prime or ARM loans in default.
ReplyDeleteClif said...
ReplyDeleteFIRE FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!
Stop panicing.
LIAR
I never said that, I said we face a very real problem and unless we face reality we can't fix the problem at the core of the economic mess.
ReplyDeleteYou are creating straw man arguments, NOT me bart, with your dishonest post.
ReplyDeleteAnd stating facts and suggesting we use those facts to find a REAL solution to the problems IS not what you claim it is.
ReplyDeleteBecause if we didn't have such a large problem the entire planets major industrial leadership wouldn't have spent a week with Bush.
ReplyDeleteBut they did because the problem is the fact we have lived far beyond our means and until we accept that and do what it takes to get back inside our means we can't solve the problem.
But crying panic, predicting doom and constant gloom, is what spreads the fear and panic, and makes you akin to the guy standing in the crowded theatre, yelling "FIRE FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!".
ReplyDeleteSorry but that is YOUR straw man not mine
ok i'll post here
ReplyDeleteBARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteMike.
This isn't complicated.
Until lenders start lending again, NOTHING will improve. I never said anything about that curing any problems, or being a panacea for everything.
But it is the ONE thing that needs to happen now, if we're going to stay out of a depression.
Its ALL resting on lending and saying ridiculous things like "the Game is over forever" isn't helping.
I don't know what else to say to you people. You don't get it. You think you do but you don't.
The problems we're experiencing now is NOT do to bad mortgages.
Its due to people like you, buying into congresses claims last October, and spreading the fear and panic.
What we are suffering under now was caused by one thing and one thing only.
FEAR and PANIC."
Bart lets focus on what we agree on or mostly agree on so we arent out in the weeds assuming each others positions..................I AGREE completely that NEED to get the lenders adaquately capitalized and willing and able to lend responsibly to credit worthy people...........whats in question at least for me is what YOUR definition of we need to get the lenders lending is because right now unless that phrase is clearly defined like I just did it is fuzzy rhetoric like we need to win in Iraq.
I agree we must get the lenders to lend responsibly to credit worthy people to prevent things from becoming worse than the Great Depression with possibly 30% unemployment but if your saying we need to go back to the reckless lending abd credit card binging consumerism to try to prolong the pain into the future wehen it will be much worse i strongly disagree.
If lenders dont start lending then we will be WORSE than the Great Depression with 30% unemployment likely if we can get credit available to the credit worthy then this crisis could be milder than the Great Depression possibly MORE like the Banking panic of 1837 where unemployment hits 15% or higher and there is a painful recessiuon lasting 5-10 years with one or two shallow insignificant short lived bear market recoveries inbetwen.
When I say the game is over FOREVER Bart "Consumerism" is over forever the smartest minds in the world have realized it..........Paul Krugman and Peter Schiff have written articles laying this out.............the era of easy credit where people live beyond their means, save nothing, and run up the credit card debt or squander home equity to buy anything and everything they want is OVER, just as the era of interest only, ballooon, no doc loans, and no down payments is OVER............banks are REQUIRING people to put down 20% and in mANY cases 30% down payments for mortgages..............this will and is greatly reducing the number of people who can buy houses at a time when forclosures are increasing and there is more houses on the market its simple supply and demand and that will KEEP driving down the value of houses couple that with increasing unemployment and forclosures and foreigners pulling their money out of this country and that WILL drive up interest rates further hurting both the stock market and housing.
Bart keep in mind that stocks and real estate are ONLY worth what people are willing to pay.................it doesnt matter if a house sold for 2 million when there was easy credit, prices were rising in double digits and there were LOTS of buyers because lenders would loan to ANYBODY...........today that say house might only be worth 1 million same for the stock market japan's stock market was worrth ALMOST 40,000 almost 20 years ago today its worth around 1/4 of that and it hasnt come back in 20 years.
Clif, if you're going to take it personal then I'm not going to respond. I'm not a liar.
ReplyDeleteI'm characterizing your constant, non stop predictions of gloom as what they are. Fearmongering.
This ain't personal, its just what it is and thats fearmongering.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteUnless lenders start lending and on a large scale, then all your fear and gloom predictions will come true.
By self fulfilling themselves.
You can talk to me about a million different solutions you have but the fact is the ONLY thing that will fix this economy, is to get the lenders lending again.
Without credit, every business out there is going under.
Best Buy can't sell TVs and Computer stuff, so the people making those things are losing their jobs. The people selling that stuff are being cut back.
Without credit, Car dealers can't sell there cars, and are going under, which in turn put millions of auto workers jobs on the chopping block.
And without credit, home sales grind to a halt, in turn putting MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of people out of work.
Everyone from the Realtor, to the Mortgage lenders and all their clerical staff, to the carpenter to the bricklayer to the factory worker to the landscapers to the painters, plumbers, electricians, drywall men, flooring installers etc, and all the businesses that support these industries or rely on them, go under.
EVERYONE suffers as long as Americans let their rage rule, and let Congress play them like a cheap banjo, telling them to froth and foam at the mouth about "getting the FATCATS".
Tell me this. When you're walking down the street carrying your personal possessions in your bindle stick as you walk to the nearest soup kitchen for your evening meal, will it "comfort" you knowing you "stuck it to the fat cats"?
Use your head.
Petty people worry about "sticking it to the fat cats", and those people are damned to petty lives.
Stop worrying about "sticking it to someone" and "making someone pay", and start concentrating on keeping our country afloat.
The fatcats aren't the problem right now.
FEARMONGERING is."
My solutions seem to be VERY similar to yours I"VE said we need to make sure banks are capitalized so they can lend responsibly, I've also said we need to help homeowners for this to work and do infra structure projects to create jobs and lead us out of this.
For the record I have NEVER said i didnt want us to make sure the banks were not adaquately capitalized my issue was it wouldnt work UNLESS they also helped homeowners and focused on Alt Energy infra structure............and I have NEER once said we need to punnish ANYONE now or over regulate NOW............my uncle has been using the EXACT SAME arguments as you and i'm assuming you guys are reacting to or debating the MSM or the politicians because you guys sure arent debating me on this issue.
As for buying TV's and other consumer electronic items Bart I have $60,000 of untapped credit I can buy whatever the hell i want and so can most people with good credit.............maybe the uncredit worthy should stop spending themselves into oblivion and start saving some money so our economy isnt built on the sandy shoals of excessive debt and reckless credit.
I'm characterizing your constant, non stop predictions of gloom as what they are. Fearmongering.
ReplyDeleteThis ain't personal, its just what it is and thats fearmongering.
NO it is NOT fear mongering, it is speaking about the depth of the problem,
and I stand by what I said,
you posted words I never said,
After YOU took voltron to task for doing exactly the same thing.
Mike said...
ReplyDeletewhats in question at least for me is what YOUR definition of we need to get the lenders lending is because right now unless that phrase is clearly defined like I just did it is fuzzy rhetoric like we need to win in Iraq.
My defintion I've spelled out Mike. The number one lending that needs to happen right now to keep the country afloat and keep Americans at work, is mortgage and auto lending. Without that the layoffs coming will be insurmountable, never mind the ones we've already had.
Also on the grander scale, banks need to be able to lend to other banks. Banks need to be able to lend to businesses, both small and large. Right now small businesses who rely on lending for meeting payrolls while billing transactions occur, cannot. People aren't getting paid, thus being laid off. They in turn default on their obligations and on and on and on.
Lending returning means lending returning. Banks, mortgages, autos, credit purchases, etc. It all needs to start up if we're going to keep the good ship USA afloat.
Clif said.
ReplyDeleteyou posted words I never said,
What words?
The doom and gloom is about the defaults. Saying if we lend people will default. People ALWAYS default, thats why its called "RISK INVESTMENT".
ReplyDeleteThe risk is you won't get paid back. So you make up for it with adjusting interest rates. Thats how it works.
As Rob Roy said, "Thats the price of borrowing money".
banks need to be able to lend to other banks.
ReplyDeleteWell with out TRUTH in lending which is the worth of a banks balance sheet that is not going to happen which is why i want all the mark to market truths out in the daylight so we can start solving the problem the balance sheets have caused.
and until that happens no way many people are going to get car homes or new mortgages because banks refuse to lend.
and even when new consumer lending does return it is NOT going to look like 2003-2006 at all.
those easy credit days are over like mike said.
That wasn't for you specifically clif by the way, that was general.
ReplyDeletewhat words;
ReplyDeleteFIRE FIRE, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!!!
You posted them and I called you on it LIKE you called Voltron when he did the same thing.
No that is YOUR version because you can't accept the things aren't returning to the way they were before the credit crisis.
ReplyDeleteI never said anything but what the problem is and how we need to resolve it.
Like my previous post above.
Thus YOUR straw man NOT mine
ReplyDeleteClif said...
ReplyDeleteand until that happens no way many people are going to get car homes or new mortgages because banks refuse to lend.
Clif, sorry but your understanding of economics is quite limited for you to say that.
You don't get it.
If they don't lend, then NOTHING will work. No new mortgages, no new homes, no new cars means EVERYONE LOSES THEIR JOB.
Thats your solution, and its the solution of a loser. Sorry, but you called me a liar, so I guess you got that one coming.
Its a LOSERS mentality to say "its over", and thats what you're saying.
20-30 years ago people saved money sometimes as much as 10% of their income and in many instances it took only ONE breadwinner to support a family over the last 20 years not only have two incomes become neccessary to make ends meet for most families but savings has deteroriated to fund consumption and help people maintain lifestyles..............over the last 8 years the economic imbalances have grown so severe that in order to fool people and make it "APPEAR" we have economic growth jackasses like Allan Greenspan and GWB have fudged economic statistics into the realm of the absurd criminally understating inflation to create the "APPEARANCE" of economic growth that along with the tax cuts for the wealthy and the reckless consumerism, excessive debt and use of credit and the reckless lending has caused this problem.
ReplyDeleteOur country is bankrupt and the cure the hack politicians and it sems you are promoting is MORE hair of the dog.............i'm on record as saying we need to make sure the lenders are capitalized and CAN lend to the credit worthy but the days of reckless lending and consu,merism are over FOREVER.........we couldnt go back there if we wanted to the foreiners are wise to the scam why would they CONTINUE to loan us money and fund our reckless debts once they realize they wont get their money back or will get VERY LITTLE back.
We need to change;
ReplyDeleteIndividually the way we use credit, and how we individually and collectively want returns on investments, which can't be supported by what we produce.
Just as we need to change the way we conducted our foreign policy the last 7 1/2 years we need to change the way we want to conduct our economic policy.
IF there are no new car loans, no new homes, and if the days of "easy credit" are over as you so gleefully proclaim, then the country is finished as we speak.
ReplyDeleteThe jobs will be gone by winter.
Hundreds of millions will be unemployed by January.
Because with nothing selling, and nothing being built, there won't be any jobs for the hundreds of millions of people who's jobs rely on those two industries in one form or another.
No bart I AM NOT saying it is over;
ReplyDeletesecond straw argument from YOU.
I am saying we as a people need to CHANGE.
ReplyDeletesorry bart but there is NO way the credit of 2003-2006 is coming back, and we need to adjust to that REALITY
ReplyDeletewe need to live with in the means we have NOT the means we want.
ReplyDeleteBARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteMike said...
whats in question at least for me is what YOUR definition of we need to get the lenders lending is because right now unless that phrase is clearly defined like I just did it is fuzzy rhetoric like we need to win in Iraq.
My defintion I've spelled out Mike. The number one lending that needs to happen right now to keep the country afloat and keep Americans at work, is mortgage and auto lending. Without that the layoffs coming will be insurmountable, never mind the ones we've already had.
Also on the grander scale, banks need to be able to lend to other banks. Banks need to be able to lend to businesses, both small and large. Right now small businesses who rely on lending for meeting payrolls while billing transactions occur, cannot. People aren't getting paid, thus being laid off. They in turn default on their obligations and on and on and on.
Lending returning means lending returning. Banks, mortgages, autos, credit purchases, etc. It all needs to start up if we're going to keep the good ship USA afloat."
Are you saying banks need to lend to each other and to the credit worthy with 20% down.................or are you saying we should go back to the interest only, no doc, balloon, and no down payment type loans that caused this crisis because there is a huge difference....................I agree completely that jobs DEPEND on access to credit for the credit worthy but I want the economy to be on a firm foundation NOT sandy shoals and loaning to people who are not likely to repay or its a crap shoot is not smart and not good for the economy in the longrun............as we are seeing.
and yes I have bought new cars and bikes and houses so I know what it means to get credit which is why I keep my credit report CLEAN.
ReplyDeleteIn fact I am beginning to think about replacing an 7 year old car I bought new.
It's either that or spend money on it fixing the things age and miles have done to it.
And thats bullshit.
ReplyDeleteEasy lending will return, only not "as" easy. It will naturally be a little tighter to weed out the companies that didn't even check references or finances, or that ignored obvious codes and requirements.
But as for lending to people other than the wealthy with perfect credit scores and high 6 figure and up salaries?
No sir. They will need to lend to regular middle America as they were doing, in order to keep the company moving forward.
People like you Clif label credit as evil, no doubt propped up by your biblical beliefs or something with regards to Usury. Whatever your inclinations towards credit are, the fact is most people use credit routinely and quite responsibly in their lives, myself included. And it is not evil.
Its what puts those buddies of yours to work at the Harley Davidson factory.
Because without the percentage of sales from credit transactions, both through Harley's credit and third party lenders, Harley wouldn't sell a third of the motorcycles they sell.
People use credit. Even people who have the money to pay cash often use credit for cash flow purposes. Credit is what keeps Americans working, and the fact is most autos and over 99 percent of home sales rely on credit.
And that means every friend of yours who does carpentry, brick laying, roofing, HVAC, flooring, factory work, landscaping, sheet metal work, etc, all would be out of a job, under YOUR plan.
Under my plan, they would not.
I am saying Mike is right
ReplyDeleteno collateral ... NO mortgage,
no good credit no loan
banks are going to return to being that way just like they have done for most of this countries history.
People use credit.
ReplyDeleteRight bart
i used credit in 1986, 1987, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2002 2003, 2004
each of those years I got a loan for something, but I DON'T over use credit to live beyond my means.
Sorry bart, but credit is returning to being able to prove the ability to pay for the loan, and since we lived as a society for a number of years outside that we need to do what it takes to return the system to the stability of paying for the credit you ask for.
ReplyDeleteclif said...
ReplyDeletewe need to live with in the means we have NOT the means we want.
You just don't get it.
Stupid one liners like that are the problem, not the solution.
This is a "catch phrase" your folks taught you that you think applies here.
And it doesn't even apply here.
Its not about "Living within our means".
People who responsibly use credit, which is MOST of us, DO live within our means.
The AVERAGE credit score in the country is between 700. That means most people pay their bills.
THIS is the "fearmongering" you are doing, because you are taking a small percentage of the population that defaults on their loans, and declaring "WE MUST LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS".
We are living within our means. I'm paying my mortgage, and everyone I know is paying their mortgages.
I pay my credit cards, and everyone I know are paying their credit card.
I would be paying on my auto loans for my 3 vehicles, but I paid the last one off last year.
We ARE living within our means and your doom and gloom suggestions that we're not is typical of whats fueling this crisis.
It really is that simple we have to live with in our means.
ReplyDeleteas people and as a society
bart everyone couldn't be living with in their means other wise the world's credit markets would not be clogged if they were.
ReplyDeleteBTW living with in our means also means paying the fiscal bills we run up and NOT passing them to future generations like the Republican plan since 1980 has done.
sorry but that also counts.
Credit is good, not bad. Or at least its a necesary evil in a world where a small percentage holds the wealth.
ReplyDeleteCredit permits all Americans to enjoy a middle class standard of living, provided they use it responsibly, which MOST of them do.
You've got to stop the fear mongering, and understand credit is our friend as much as its our enemy, all in how we use it. And if we don't make it readily available again, then your friends who do work for a living will lose their jobs.
On the up side, they'll have more time to spend with you.
clif said...
ReplyDeletebart everyone couldn't be living with in their means other wise the world's credit markets would not be clogged if they were.
Credit is responsible living within ones means.
If I can afford 2000 dollars a month for a mortgage, then my purchasing a mortgage is my living within my means.
If I can afford the 100 dollars a month on the credit card payment for that new Flat Screen television, then I can afford that TV.
Suze Orman is one of the best financial advisors I've ever seen. She's practical and she's prudent. And she's old school. But she also knows credit is a good thing, as long as you use it wisely.
FACT. The AVERAGE credit score in the US is 700, meaning MOST people ARE living within their means.
Regardless of your fear mongering.
BTW bart NO doom or gloom but the financial reality which everyone used to suggest to live by, before the sub-prime use your house as an ATM though process caught on.
ReplyDeleteCredit was used BUT unreal risks were not accept either by the bank or regulators who watched the banks.
We have the problem unreal risks were accepted and thus we face a problem where the risks grew larger then what the system would accept.
No doom or gloom but a simple statement of the facts.
Sorry bart but I have NEVER slammed credit at all, third straw man from YOU.
ReplyDeleteI have said credit needs to be used responsibility by both the consumer and lender.
Like NO more wall street calling down ans saying sell any loans you can like they did during the run up in the housing bubble.
Thats BULLSHIT.
ReplyDeleteI'm tired of the ring around the rosy clif.
Thats NOT what happened. I've spelled out in a BILLION KEYSTROKES what happened.
There was a MARGINAL increase in defaulted mortgages but FEARMONGERING caused a panic, and a "run" on the securities backed by US mortgages.
This has snowballed, because people like you can't stop screaming FIRE.
You'll never see that, or at least admit that, I know, so lets just drop it.
Credit is needed, but responsibly
ReplyDeletee credit not no doc loans, no credit where you only pay the interest and never touch the principle.
because that is NOT responsible especially if it is an asset which depreciates like all autos do.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteSorry bart but I have NEVER slammed credit at all, third straw man from YOU.
You said no more easy credit.
No home sales, etc.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteFDR knew what fearmongering did, which is why he instituted his "bank holiday".
He didn't even call it "shutting down the banks" which is what he did. He called it a "HOLIDAY" to help calm people.
And he did it to stop the PANIC. Which he knew, was the REAL problem.
People sit there and say "omg the sky is falling" "Pull your money out of stocks" and then you sit there and proclaim how badly the stock market is falling.
Its falling because people are taking their money out.
And people are taking their money out because everyones saying the sky is falling.
Its a CYCLE. Why can't you see that?
Why is that so hard for you people to see? Is it fear? Hate? Rage?
What emotion is blinding you personally Mike, thats keeping your otherwise intelligent brain, from comprehending that yelling FIRE in a panic is only going to perpetuate the damage???
Bart if you remember I said that we should have done a "banking holiday" like FDR did and closed the insolvent ones and capitalized and guranteed the loans of the sound ones a month ago.............it would have worked and possibly averted some of this crash people laughed at me when I brought up the banking holiday.........looks like they arent laughing anymore we need to write of the bad debt, make sure the good companies are solvent, capitalized and are lending and focus on helping the working class and creating and maintaining jobs.
Bart your fire in a movie theater analogy is questionable because if your saying you should just stand there and tell people not to panic with the possibility of getting trampled yourself..........not panicking means keeping your wits and doing what is neccessary to protect your self then help others...............I know your not saying to just stab=nd there and say dont panic to a raging mob but a wiser course for the theater would be to keep calm direct others to the safe exits and get out yourself............
Answer me this would it be better for you to stay in stocks and tell the world not to panic because its the honorable thing to do or bail out and TRY to protect SOME of your wealth so you can survive or help your family and friends if things get really bad..............its not a badge of honor to stay on the deck and rearrange the chairs as the Titantic sinks.
For the record I've been in the market for 12 years i've ALWAYS stayed fully invested and NEVER panicked or sold out and there have been times were the market has fallen farther than it has in the last month with more fear and panic selling..............THIS TIME however I have sold everything except for my checking account i pay the bills with I am completely out of American stocks and banks and will be ass far as I can see...........the difference here is "consumerism" is OVER we've entered a new era and like Lydia stated years ago we NEED to get past consumerism and get back to working together caring about people and helping one another...........we need to get off of oil and move to renewable energy and we need to create good paying jobs and a sustainable economy again.
No I won't drop it because the facts aren't what you spent your key strokes on.
ReplyDeleteThe real problem is still the CDS NOT sub-prime.
Even if you refuse to admit it.
Like I said the sub-prime revealed the credit problem but it does not constitute the bulk of the problem.
Not fear mongering BUT FACT.
You said no more easy credit.
ReplyDeleteRight.
NO more credit where they don't even ask anything about what you earn or how much you realistically can pay is.
No more loans based on interest only to reset upwards beyond the ability to pay them off.
Credit is going to return to what was normal for a long time, prove the ability to pay and you get credit,
ReplyDeleteno proof no loan.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteI am saying Mike is right
no collateral ... NO mortgage,
no good credit no loan
banks are going to return to being that way just like they have done for most of this countries history.
For most of this countries history a black man couldn't qualify to own his own home.
Fair access to credit changed that.
People don't have to be perfect to get credit. People make mistakes but that doesn't mean they don't deserve a home just like mr perfects like you apparently feel you are.
EVERYONE deserves a shot if they can verify income and a "reasonable" credit history.
I'm not saying write bad loans and you know that. I'm saying write LOTS of loans though.
Without them, product doesn't move.
When product doesn't move, people lose their jobs.
Good people.
Credit is not bad. And we don't need talk of "tight restrictions" on it right now. We need to be somewhat loose right now if we're going to recover.
We stopped an Elephant in its tracks. Its going to take a lot to get it going again.
That means home sales. Auto sales and other big ticket items MUST sell and must sell now.
Thats how you move an economy forward.
bart you can't get the lenders and investment banks who provide the capital to lend to return to easy credit because they hold too much credit which they have no real recourse to collect on right now,
ReplyDeleteuntil we solve that problem we can't get credit unfroze, and there is NO way they banks are going to do what you seem to want.
they can't if they hope to stay afloat in this enviroment.
Fair access to credit changed that.
ReplyDeleteIt never said give loans people couldn't afford,
it said give credit.
Which I believe in, credit for every human who can show they can pay for it.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteYou said no more easy credit.
Right.
NO more credit where they don't even ask anything about what you earn or how much you realistically can pay is.
You think small clif. You don't think about investors. Investors drive this economy. So do developers.
Investors and developers can't always show proof of income to pay for a loan on homes they're investing in to sell. Their income obviously won't show that over the long haul.
Trick is, they're not intending on keeping the home over the long haul. Builders and developers and investors ALL rely on loans known as "NO DOC's" which permit them to borrow to invest, which drives our economy.
Its how business works. You borrow the money, turn the money into a LOT MORE MONEY, and put a LOT OF GOOD PEOPLE TO WORK.
People in the blue collar world RELY on those loans, even though they don't know it. Without their bosses getting those loans they're not getting any work.
What you so proudly herald with your Waltonesque values of "living withing our means" doesn't factor in business development and investment, which drives our economy.
The housing market is the number one industry that needs easy access to money if we're going to stabilize things.
The auto industry is number two.
People don't have to be perfect to get credit.
ReplyDeleteI agree, BUT they have to be able to pay the bill for the credit AND their other expenses.
bart, building more houses when we have lots that are not selling isn't a solution.
ReplyDeleteIt is creating a bigger housing GLUT not resolving the one we currently have.
EVERYONE deserves a shot if they can verify income and a "reasonable" credit history.
ReplyDeleteThat IS what I am saying
verify income
But that means NO easy credit like we had 2003-2006
Now before you go accusing me of only saying that because I'm in the industry, thats not correct. I am in an entirely different field.
ReplyDeleteThat I've done some investing is true, but on a small scale, and only as a secondary project for extra money.
But I know plenty of real builders. Mid sized firms right in the heart of DC, who have laid off hundreds of carpenters, brick layers, masons, sheetrock, painters, electricians, architects, secretarial staff, etc, all because they can no longer get the "no doc" loans to fund their business ventures.
Many of these firms, which are established, long time brick and mortar firms, are running on either skelton crews or shut down alltogether.
You think you're right because of principal, but what I'm trying to show you clif, is the inner workings your googled facts, figures and articles aren't showing.
Theres REAL people, MILLIONS and MILLIONS and MILLIONS of them, who are SUFFERING BIG, because guys like you don't want lenders lending.
You don't get it, because you don't understand business.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteEVERYONE deserves a shot if they can verify income and a "reasonable" credit history.
That IS what I am saying
verify income
But that means NO easy credit like we had 2003-2006
You don't think about investors. Investors drive this economy. So do developers.
Investors and developers can't always show proof of income to pay for a loan on homes they're investing in to sell. Their income obviously won't show that over the long haul.
Trick is, they're not intending on keeping the home over the long haul. Builders and developers and investors ALL rely on loans known as "NO DOC's" which permit them to borrow to invest, which drives our economy.
Its how business works. You borrow the money, turn the money into a LOT MORE MONEY, and put a LOT OF GOOD PEOPLE TO WORK.
People in the blue collar world RELY on those loans, even though they don't know it. Without their bosses getting those loans they're not getting any work.
What you so proudly herald with your Waltonesque values of "living withing our means" doesn't factor in business development and investment, which drives our economy.
Trying to make money flipping houses is OK for a few BUT as an investment vehicle most aren't set up or skilled enough to make it LONG term.
ReplyDeleteEspecially the way they show on TV since the late 1990's
Like all reality TV it ain't what they portray it out to be.
I know people who buy a house live in that house for a year of two fix it up then sell it and try to move up.
But for most people that is not the best type of investing.
Bart the genie's allready out of the bottle job losses are allready increasing substantially...............all the banks that failed are as you KNOW REAL job losses hat in turn will increase bankruptcies and forclosures which will cause more job losses........the foreign capital sees that and has fled and isnt coming back......
ReplyDeleteYou said stocks rise or fall because people sell them or buy them...........thats one component there are many that effect stock prices such as earnings, interest rates, consumer sentiments, the fundamentals of the economy as as rotten as I've EVER seen them and I remember the 1970's.
You said in the last thread Bart your brother lost 70% of the value of his retirement savings............do you think that will cause him to cut back on spending and save more like the 80% of Americans that are in similar circumstances..........half the people I know have lost 70% the other half havent looked yet but when they DO see their quaterly 401K statements they will also cut spending, save more and panic and get out of stocks and that will drive earnings down cause MORE bankruptcies, layoffs forclosures etc...
The vicious circle has started and its hard to stop............your policies are right if we CAN get lending going again for the credit worthy then we will have a painful recession with possibly 15% unemployment instead of a Depression woth possibly 30% unemployment.
I dumped my holdings not out of panic but out of logical reasoning.........I read the tea leaves tv's are sitting in stores last years cars and motorcycles are still sitting on dealer floors unsold as the new 2009's come in and thas NOT just from the tight creit of the last 4-8 weeks, semiconductors are cutting production and have huge inentories I could go on and on...........there are a million sighns that recession is inevitable and when a recession comes earnings KEEP ketting revised down and stock prices get hammered whenever they do................this is just STARTING to hit the economy and that means job losses will continue to rise substantially and stocks have a LOT farther to fall i would guess 6000 or so for the DOW.
Roofers, laborers, carpenters, brick layers, masons, sheetrock, painters, electricians, architects, secretarial staff, realtors, delivery drivers, home depot employees, etc, all are losing jobs because builders, developers and investors, including big and small ones, can no longer get the "no doc" loans to fund their business ventures.
ReplyDeleteNo doc means no doc. Its a high risk field that charges high interest, but it works when done right.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteBart the genie's allready out of the bottle job losses are allready increasing substantially...............all the banks that failed are as you KNOW REAL job losses hat in turn will increase bankruptcies and forclosures which will cause more job losses........the foreign capital sees that and has fled and isnt coming back......
Wrong.
It ain't coming back IF the lending doesn't return.
But IF the lenders start lending again, with SOMEWHAT tighter restrictions to avoid the blatant abuses that SOME lenders engaged in, then it CAN come back.
Greenspan said it. Other say it. And I say it.
You've got to have a little faith and stop beliving all the negativity.
Bart, we're not talking about developers or investors thats another category..........i'm focusing on regular people that live in these homes or want credit cards and unless they can likely repay the loan they shouldnt get loans or credit cards.
ReplyDeleteIf you guys want to do some good, start investigating a company called "REALTY TRAC", that sprung up a few years ago and started spouting the doom and gloom figures you guys are reciting.
ReplyDeleteYou will find, as several others have, that REALTY TRAC is highly suspicious in its predictions, timings and origins.
The fact is things WERE NOT as bad as was being reported. It was PANIC however that MADE them that way.
Believe it. Don't believe it. That won't change the fact that that IS what happened.
You don't get it, because you don't understand business.
ReplyDeletewrong, I know lots of people IN the business,
But given the insane way the whole housing industry acted in the middle of this decade, things won't return to any sense of normal until they work out the imbalances which the investors created. Imbalances created by demanding easy credit, over building and raising prices too far too fast pushing for no doc loans, sub-prime and alt a ARMs to people who never could afford them.
That has to be worked thru.
it isn't me saying it.
It is the bankers who are demanding that before they will unfreeze credit.
I know you know the housing industry and own a business and your a smart guy.............but advocating sound reasonable and fair lending principles isnt shitting on the working class..................i SEE the working class suffering Bart half the people I work with have collectors calling harrassing them 5 people i know have filed for bankruptcy in the last 18 months...........prior to that i didnt know anyone who had filed for bankruptcy.
ReplyDeleteWe NEED to start living within our means and helping the working class and its going to be painful very painful but its neccessary.
Think about it people that lost retirement money must save more instead of spend now.........people running up their credit cards or using home equity to spend cant any more, the pool of people able to buy houses has shrunk because lenders now require 20%-30% down and dont lend to dead beats forclosures are rising its simple supply and demand if there are less consumers able to buy and mORE items for sale prices go down and we have recession.
bart, just like 1929, the way out is NOT to return to 1928, but find a way to employ people, and get money moving again from the bottom up, instead of the trickle down ideas which started this cycle.
ReplyDeleteIf people don't have jobs we need to help them get jobs, BUT not just build to build or the problem in housing will never unwind.
the same for other people.
This country needs LOTS of infrastructure which has been allowed to crumble too far, and working to fix that will employ lots of people, also we need to revamp the way our electric grid is set up to stop small crashes from becoming large black outs.
That is the way out for employment for now, NOT trying to restart the cycle which caused this whole problem to begin with.
Bart getting banks to lend to the credit worthy will slow the slide and i AGREE WITH YOU 100% its need but it wont bring back the good times or stop the painful readjustment that is neccessary..................recessions are neccessary and idiots like Allan Greenspan or GWB or even Clinton cutting interest rates and promoting reckless dergegulation to prevent them only makes things worse when the day of reckoning arrives.
ReplyDeleteWe have to mitigate the damage of 20 years of voodoo economics and snake oil by getting responsible lending going and helping homeowners , the working class and promoting job creation and infra structure projects............but bottom line its going to be painful and we need to suck it up and take it like men.
Bart I wish you were right and I'm wrong on this NO ONE wants things like this to happen in our time but we have to play the cards we are dealt.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteI know you know the housing industry and own a business and your a smart guy.............but advocating sound reasonable and fair lending principles isnt shitting on the working class..................
Mike, I'm not advocating unsound or unreasonable lending principles.
I'm saying that the lenders were CHECKING THEMSELVES last October.
Go back and read the papers. They were already in the process of ruling out certain programs that were too lax in their lending methods.
Congress however jumped in and FROZE lending with talk of crackdowns, investigations and "HEADS WILL ROLL".
Everytime we talk about lending restrictions we're moving farther from the solution, and closer to the problem right now.
LESS lending won't help us.
MORE lending will.
Less lending means less jobs, less sales, less revenue, and that means spiral DOWN.
More lending means more jobs, more sales, more revenue, and moving forward.
The cure can't kill the body.
ReplyDeleteLending is the backbone of the economy. It keeps business moving forward. It will be nice to change that, but in STAGES.
CAREFULLY.
Not "KNEE JERK".
And NOT IN THE MIDDLE OF A CRISIS.
We fix it AFTER we stablize. AFTER we're in control.
And in STAGES. GRADUALLY. So as not to rock the boat.
Bart lending started to 'freeze up' a year ago.
ReplyDeleteThe article I told mike about shows the moves by the FED in August to try to unfreeze credit LONG before your argument even starts.
There is no way we at this time can go back to lending circa 2005 just like they couldn't go back from early 1930 problems to 1928 economic ideas.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteBart I wish you were right and I'm wrong on this NO ONE wants things like this to happen in our time but we have to play the cards we are dealt.
Well what are you talkin to me for?
If what you're saying is true, then go pull your money out of the bank and go have a big night, then blow your brains out, or off yourself in some other spectacular fasion.
Because if what YOU'RE saying is true, theres going to be 400 MILLION well armed, very hungry and very cold people in about 90 days, so you might as well have yourself a ball and go out on your own terms, right?
I know.
Lets just all lay down and die.
I'm not supporting any punatative investigations, reguulations or penalties now..............I have very conistently stated we NEED to allow the banks to remain solvent and have adaquate capital, so they can lend i've said before we can ALWAYS regulate them, break them up or punish them later once things are stabilized.
ReplyDeleteI see the politicians and the MSM touting this get the fat cats line so I think thats were you and my uncle were coming from but i have NEVER stated punishing them now............your ABSOLUTELY right we need to insure credit is available and worry about the other crap later.
i'm with you 100% on that one..........the politicians and media are just trying to sensationalize this with that populist talk,
We fix it AFTER we stablize.
ReplyDeleteWell since it is the banks which decide what is stabilization, and they want proof before credit is extended, I don't think you will win the argument with them.
That is NOT doom or gloom but what they are doing right now.
We've been through tough times before Mike. I'm about 2 decades your senior I think (you're around 30 right?) and I can tell you that we can get through this too.
ReplyDeleteIts not talk like this that got my folks through WWII and its not talk like this that will get us out of this mess.
If lending starts, it all will start, and thats going to happen, right AFTER the elections IF we get a favorable congress as well as Obama.
You don't see it because they're playing you and Clif with the smoke and mirrors show. Its all an act. A smoke screen. Designed to frighten voters into hopefully vote democrat.
I hope it works. I really do. But in the meantime we're bleeding ourselves out here.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteWe fix it AFTER we stablize.
Well since it is the banks which decide what is stabilization, and they want proof before credit is extended, I don't think you will win the argument with them.
Clif. Banks aren't lending aNy cash right now. They're frozen. No cash assets out.
You just don't get it, and I'm tired of trying to sell it to you.
Believe what you want.
You'll see.
Bart if we do the things you Clif and myself all AGREE we NEED TO then i dont think things will get that bad although we very well might see sOME social unrest...........its a matter of 15% unemployment vs 30%
ReplyDeleteBart I allready pulled my money out of ALL American stocks and banks except my checking account............after the goverment spends money to help homeowners and create jobs the dollar will fall and i dont want my money to be in dollars, or american stocks.
See bart the federal central banks have NOT stopped loaning to the national banks, however those banks won't loan that money further out thye are parking it back in treasuries at the time being making a little interest, but NOT stimulating the economy.
ReplyDeleteUntil the bankers at the national level feel safer in spreading new loans around they won't unfreeze credit.
What they want is either assurances they will be insured by governments or the balance sheets exposed so they know the money they loan is safe.
We need to get THAT done then credit starts flowing again but not like it did in 2005-6, those days are gone for now.
I'm 39 Bart
ReplyDeleteBart I think Democratic slugs like Pelosi nd reed might have wanted the economy to tank for political reasons a while back but I think EVERYONE's scared now and just wants to help solve this.
ReplyDeleteThis is beyond partisan ship we NEED to put partisanship aside and work togethet to pull us out of this as best as we can and infrastructure and job creation is critical.
Bart and Lydia, read this article i'm going to post here..........Peter Schiff explains things far better than I could.
ReplyDeletebart the claim you keep giving would be plausible if it was JUST a US problem, but it is a world wide problem and england is buying controlling interest to unfreeze credit, Iceland had to seize their three big banks to stop them from crashing, which means the Washington politicos are not the root of the problem ,or even a very large player on the stage, except for the fact they agreed to invest 700,000,000,000 to try to solve the toxic investment mess.
ReplyDeleteThe idea that politicians giving speeches here affect the British, Irish, Icelandic or other European banks which are crashing doesn't pass the smell test.
October 10, 2008
ReplyDeleteThe Party is Over
More than just a mere liquidity or credit crisis, the current financial storm represents the death throes of the old global economic order, and perhaps the birth pains of a new one. The sun is setting on the borrow and spend culture that has all but defined us for a generation. Our long ride on the global gravy train is finally coming to an end, and once it does nothing will be the same. The sooner we come to grips with this the better.
Despite the myriad of proposals that are coming from Washington and other world capitals, we must understand that this crisis cannot be cured by governments. In the United States, credit is gone because savings are gone. Our shallow pool of savings has been depleted through bad loans, and we can no longer entice foreigners into lending us their available savings. Given that we are already too loaded up on existing debt that we cannot realistically repay, who can blame them for not wanting to lend us more?
As a result, the free market is trying to put an end to our spending spree. Without savings or home equity to fall back on, Americans struggling with rising prices are finally being forced to curtail their spending. This has terrified our leaders and is causing them to dismantle the remaining structure of our free enterprise-based economic system.
The intention of all these daily federal interventions is to keep the credit spigots open so Americans can go even deeper into debt to buy more stuff they can’t actually afford. This should be clear enough to anyone who listens to what our leaders are actually saying. When speaking about the need for an even larger fiscal stimulus package, Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said, “We have to prop up consumption.” He has it backwards. The government has been propping up consumption for far too long, and the best thing they can do now is remove the props so spending can be replaced by savings.
The sad reality is that we borrowed and spent our way into this crisis, and we are not going to borrow and spend our way out of it. Legitimate credit can only be supplied if there are genuine savings to finance it. Savings can’t be magically concocted into existence by a printing press, but can only be created by consumers who spend less than they earn. Efforts to fool the market will not work and will ultimately lead to a monetary disaster and runaway inflation.
Were the government to allow market forces to work, Americans would now have to pay cash for their consumption. That would mean no instant credit for new cars, plasma TVs, appliances, consumer electronics, clothing, furniture, etc. Unless buyers actually had the cash in their checking accounts these purchases would have to be deferred. From an economic perspective this is precisely what the doctor ordered. But for an economy based 72 percent on consumer spending, the medicine will go down hard.
Ultimately, a serious reduction in consumer and mortgage credit, combined with an increase in personal savings, would again provide a pool of needed capital for businesses to produce products and provide employment opportunities. However, the danger is that this potential credit could be completely crowded out by massive borrowing by the Federal Government. In addition, prices for such things as houses and college tuition will fall sharply, as the credit artificially propping them up disappears. People would still be able to buy houses and send their kids to college only they would pay much lower prices when they do.
However, if the government keeps creating inflation to artificially sustain consumer borrowing and spending, there will be no savings left to fund anything and prices will be so high that despite massive consumer spending there will be few goods that Americans could actually afford to buy.
Lydia you should have Peter Schiff and Paul Krugman on your radio show............I know you've had Krugman before but with this financial crisis they would be good people to have on.
ReplyDeleteWe can get thru this because we have no choice, BUT things are not going to return to the way they were a couple of years ago.
ReplyDeleteThat never was a choice after Bear Sterns crashed, but especially after the mid September crunch.
You pulling your money out isn't helping. Your doing whats called "locking in the loss".
ReplyDeleteIf you think long term and ride the storm, you will be fine.
But with everyone using the panic method, of "every man for himself", and pulling their funds, the stocks, CD's, banks, etc that you're pulling out of, MUST fail. Because you're all taking their capital.
See Mike, words like this demonstrate how effectively the media and the fearmongering si working. When you say things like "toxic investment mess.
" you're merely repeating buzzwords that have been drilled into your thinking to perpetuate the crisis.
It can be fixed with injections of cash into banks, backing of US mortgages and with only one freeze.
A freeze on PANIC.
But each day we wait, we BLEED.
ReplyDeleteAnd the loss of blood of each day LESSENS the impact these fixes will have.
This is a self fullfilling prophecy we're experiencing.
A crisis started by some greed of some people, but fueled, and driven, by PANIC.
If this were a MASH operating room, you'd be Frank Burns, cutting off the boys leg because it "Looks" like its not salvagable.
ReplyDeleteHawkeye on the other hand, will always try to save the leg.
He might not make it, but at least he doesn't give up.
It can be fixed with injections of cash into banks, backing of US mortgages
ReplyDeletebart they have been;
The sizes of both 28-day and 84-day Term Auction Facility (TAF) auctions will be boosted to $150 billion each, effective with the 84-day auction to be conducted Monday. These increases will eventually bring the amounts outstanding under the regular TAF program to $600 billion. In addition, the sizes of the two forward TAF auctions to be conducted in November to extend credit over year end have been increased to $150 billion each, so that $900 billion of TAF credit will potentially be outstanding over year end.
That is on top of the 700 billion dollars the congress approved treasury to spend.
.... and credit is not thawing yet.
Once you understand that the markets we rely on are driven by fear and stimulus, then you'll figure out what works and what doesn't.
ReplyDeleteAs FDR said on that famous radio address when he took office, and addressing the great depression, said;
"We have nothing to fear, but fear itself".
Fear is our enemy.
Hope, and faith are our allies.
And Panic.
ReplyDeletePanic is the by product, of fear.
It is the vehicle by which it travels, and infects us all with its LOSER mentality.
ReplyDeletebart no fear here, BUT I want reasonable responsible programs NOT re-create what got us in this mess.
ReplyDeleteBecause all that means is we kicked the can down the street to deal with it again in six months to a few years while it got worse.
Hawkeye was NEVER for pushing big problems off till later cause he knew they just got worse.
Clif cried panic and said...
ReplyDeleteand credit is not thawing yet.
You're referencing things that are JUST NOW FINALLY HAPPENING.
The monies you are quoting are just BEGINING to hit the banks.
They haven't had any time yet to work, and it hasn't happened yet across the board.
The EU and the White House are working on plans similar to those used in the great depression.
They're on the right track.
Lets give them the benefit of the doubt for once and STOP with the loser mentalities.
They can do this. We can help.
Chin up. Chest out. Eyes forward.
Be confident. Push those fears out of your mind and have a little faith.
Hawkeye was the person who drove to the peace talks to try to end the war, NOT someone who said keep it going, cause some people made money off it.
ReplyDeleteClif cried panic and said...
ReplyDeleteSorry but I have to call
BULLSHIT
on you on that one cause
They have been doing this since LAST year with no real results. because they refuse to OPEN the vaults and let the balance sheets get resolved which are what is stopping any real interbank or bank to industry credit from flowing.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteHawkeye was NEVER for pushing big problems off till later cause he knew they just got worse.
Are you kidding? Thats exactly what they did at the MASH. Nothing fancy. No long term cures.
Just keep the patient alive and healthy long enough for transport to a real hospital.
And thats exactly what we need here.
A MASH unit.
Long term fixes are for long term problems. We have immediate problems, we need immediate fixes.
Guys like you sitting back in your bunkers and saying "I got mine" aren't helping.
You're only making matters worse.
The bear sterns buy out was in march, and Sept 2007 when Jim Cramer had his TV meltdown the fed tried injecting liquidity with no real results, so as usual you don't tell the WHOLE truth on this one.
ReplyDeleteI showed how much they are doing and you try to fling it into YOUR straw man argument which is NOT true as usual
You took Voltron to task for EXACTLY the very same thing if I remember right.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteThey have been doing this since LAST year with no real results.
They haven't been injecting capital into banks since last year clif. They just got authority to do that with the passage of this bill.
Thats what the bill for the 700 billion was about.
They've been doing "patchwork" since October, but they haven't done much, and they haven't injected lending capital into the banks, which is WHAT they are FINALLY talking about now.
If they can hear themselves talk over the shouts from paniced naysayers like yourself, who keep screaming at the top of your lungs to "not bail out the fat cats".
You don't get it.
You probably never will.
sorry bart but your argument is NOT a solution but a cry for a return to business as usual circa 2005 which is how we got in this mess in the first place.
ReplyDeleteThey haven't been injecting capital into banks since last year clif.
ReplyDeleteyes bart they have,
Obviously YOU don't know how the Fed really works OR you wouldn't claim it wasn't injecting capital into banks since the fall of 2007.
ReplyDeleteclif said...
ReplyDeleteThe bear sterns buy out was in march, and Sept 2007 when Jim Cramer had his TV meltdown the fed tried injecting liquidity with no real results, so as usual you don't tell the WHOLE truth on this one
You're talking about something completely different.
The problem with the wall street banks was because they were investment banks and not main street savings and loan banks they couldn't get liquidity injections from the Fed till late this fall when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley asked to be regulated by the Fed.
ReplyDeleteYou're talking about something completely different.
ReplyDeleteNo bart that is when this crisis started, but the liquidity injections helped for a few months but they didn't solve the problem.
who keep screaming at the top of your lungs to "not bail out the fat cats".
ReplyDeletesorry bart straw man number 4
I never said that,
I said responsible lending based on the ability to repay the loan.
I said help the middle class and workers who need a job to get money flowing on main street to get the economy moving again.
I said to try to give the light of day to balance sheets so that could be resolved so banks could lend again.
But I never said what You claim.
ReplyDeleteI'm talking about injecting lending capital into the banks, and tax incentives to lend, and a temporary relaxing of standards and regulation for the interim, until we stabilize the market.
ReplyDeleteBush already did one very smart thing. Of course he didn't do it, someone smart told him to, but still, credit given where credit is due. He raised the FDIC insurance on deposits to 250k up from 100k.
This also was a move from the great depression, that strengthened confidence in the banks and hence the banking system that translated into foriegn confidence in our money again.
It was one step that was right.
But the truth is, if we'd passed the 700 billion dollar bailout when the stocks were rising on word of it, we'd have seen some improvements. But instead the republicans played politics with it, and BONER and company walked out.
That hurt us, and left us to bleed for weeks trying to get the new bill passed. This week, we should start to see the international community along with our government start to prop up the banking system, which will in turn hopefully, stimulate lending.
As Suze Orman points out on her website.
When this happens, it could slowly move things forward, or at least slow the slide.
The slide, the "rapid slide" is what was caused by panic, and guys like you spreading fear and panic helped it slide. Even in your small ways. Fear and panic cost us close to 2 TRILLION, with a capital T, over just a 2 week period.
You sit back, say "it would happen anyway" when the fact is its better to bleed slowly, than to have a "gusher".
You're like a medic prying a wound open causing the blud to gush out and telling the paitent, "hey you were bleeding anyway. What does it matter because sooner or later the blood will all come out".
You never bother to stop to consider that "STOPPING" the bleeding, might be the first course of action.
You can worry about whether or not the patient can ever play the Violin again or not, AFTER you stop the bleeding.
ReplyDelete:|
Stop the bleeding. Save a life.
Stop the bleeding.
ReplyDeleteClean up the balance sheets which is the "bleeding" of availability of credit.
Get money to main street in jobs NOT loans then credit will flow because they will have the ability to repay the loans.
The liquidity you're talking about is something diferent.
ReplyDeleteWe're talking about injecting capital directly into the banks from the fed. It takes laws to do that, and those laws weren't passed last year.
The fed will take a stake in the banks, like they did in 32.
And I might note, that after FDR's injections, Hoovers "Reconstruction Finance Corp" and the creation of the FDIC, the government recieved back with interest, all the money it had funded into the banks.
Thats a fact. And it can happen again.
But never mind. I'm done. I'n done arguing with you. You can cry panic all you want, but when we're sitting here next year and the markets coming back, you're gonna look awfully dumb.
Stop the bleeding by stopping the people who create all this debt and NO repayment plans at all from creating more toxic debt.
ReplyDeleteThat means the bankers who want easy credit no doc loans and interest only payments,
credit is trust, and we need to trust to give credit BUT verify they can pay for it.
The Fed has been injecting liquidity for over a year now..............remember in EARLY 2006 when i posted about the Fed no longer reporting M3.............the reason for that was so that they could print money and inject liquidity into the banking system without ANYONE realizing how bad things were.............i started warning about this 3 years ago when the FED stopped reporting M3 i talked about it for months with FF and Clif.
ReplyDeleteWhenever transparency is reduced its for bad reasons.........I also warned about the bogus gov stats being put out and that things wouldnt end well.
then just last month I ranted about WHAT was burried in the bowels of the original bailout document.........there was a clause in there authorizing financial instutions to be able to use YOUR assets without your knowledge or permission as they please to remain solvent...........THAT told me all i needed to know about how bad things really are i lost COMPLETE confidence in these clowns.
We're talking about injecting capital directly into the banks from the fed. It takes laws to do that, and those laws weren't passed last year.
ReplyDeleteWrong bart, the fed has had the power to inject liquidity since the 1930's in exchange for the right to regulate how banks operate.
have a nice night bart.
ReplyDeleteIt takes laws for the FED to take a staske in banks but the FED was CREEATED to inject or remove liquidity from the banking system it is the lender of last resort and thats what its been doing..............take a look at how the discount window has been INCREASINGLY tapped over the last year and that will tell you all you need to know.
ReplyDeleteclif said...
ReplyDeleteClean up the balance sheets which is the "bleeding" of availability of credit.
Get money to main street in jobs NOT loans then credit will flow because they will have the ability to repay the loans.
NO.
That has NOTHING to do with stopping the bleeding.
The BLEEDING is the money being lost in stocks and securities trading that is draining the banks that you keep you Christmas Club in.
THATS the bleeding.
I'm tired of you constantly changing the topic to whatever you want it to be, then accusing me of lying, and on and on.
The BLEEDING is the 2 TRILLION dollars we just lost last week and the week before.
The bleeding is WAMU, MY FUCKING BANK going under.
The bleeding is REAL PEOPLE losing their RETIREMENTS.
Thats the FUCKING BLEEDING CLIF, and if you'd get your head out of your ass long enough to realize that you'd see that what you're talking about won't do any good if there AREN'T ANY BUSINESSES LEFT TO CREATE THESE JOBS WITH.
You STOP THE BLEEDING.
ReplyDeleteAnd the BLEEDING is the LOSSES.
And you can't do that with a FUCKING JOBS BILL.
:|
Its a wonder you're not in congress.
They've got the right ideas right now.
ReplyDeleteThe EU's stepped in, "SMART PEOPLE", and they're moving towards solutions tried and proven throughout history.
Give them time.
Stop the fucking panic.
And go by a new TV set, or a new set of tires for your bike.
That will do more good than your constant whining.
bart BTW here are some injections before October;
ReplyDeleteLiquidity injections from Central banks
Ahead of the FED meeting where some futures point to a rate cut, the FT reports on liquity injections.
The European Central Bank: €70bn
The Bank of England: £20bn
The New York Federal Reserve: $50bn
The Bank of Japan: $24bn.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Some $400 billion in extraordinary injections of central bank liquidity, into the banking systems, were carried out Aug. 9-21, and are still continuing.
Even as the Federal Reserve injected $17 billion into the banking system on the morning of Aug. 16, an $11.5 billion emergency credit line for Countrywide was provided by 40 banks, organized by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and at the insistence of the Fed.
So obviously the fed has been injecting liquidity into banks even though you claim they weren't.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteclif said...
They have been doing this since LAST year with no real results.
They haven't been injecting capital into banks since last year clif. They just got authority to do that with the passage of this bill.
Thats what the bill for the 700 billion was about.
They've been doing "patchwork" since October, but they haven't done much, and they haven't injected lending capital into the banks, which is WHAT they are FINALLY talking about now.
If they can hear themselves talk over the shouts from paniced naysayers like yourself, who keep screaming at the top of your lungs to "not bail out the fat cats".
You don't get it.
You probably never will."
Bart the bailout was so they could start actually BUYING these assets from the banks and taking shares in the banks themselves the FED has always had the power to inject liquidity.
sorry bart, but I wasn't responsible for WAMU going under but if screaming at me helps ........
ReplyDeletebart, I don't need a new TV but I do need a rear tire soon,
ReplyDeleteI haven't stopped spending money in fact I have spent a little more then usual because prices of some things I buy have fallen.
No. It doesn't help. Thats just it.
ReplyDeleteYou sit there smugly wanting to "be right" so badly, never bothering to look at your role or what your doom and gloom talk does.
No one said you alone were responsible for WAMU failing. But people LIKE you, spreading panic when they don't need to, are the problem. Panic passengers on airplanes are usually restrained. Why? Because they do more harm than good.
Panic is never good, and negativity breeds panic. Its good to be truthful, but when someones seriously wounded the LAST thing the tending physician does when treating them at the scene, is to tell them how bad they're hurt.
Panic can cause further problems, respitory and otherwise, so they CALM the patient, and tell them not what is necesarily true, but what isn't so bad. They don't focus on the worst. They look at the best.
There is help on the way, and plans that can work, IF we can stop the paniced investors from pulling the rest of the funds out.
But if we cannot stop the panic, then we won't stop the stampede.
And the stampede is what will kill us. Not the so called "crisis".
We are the crisis.
You are the crisis.
You are the crisis.
ReplyDeleteNo bart over extravagant spending on credit was the crisis,
borrowing beyond your means was the crisis, but we refused to admit it till the bills started coming due.
Trying to restart that will not solve the crisis only put off the payment for a while longer.
You are indeed the little, gray haired old man with the long flowing beard we are all so familiar with. Standing on a street corner with a sign saying, "THE END IS NEAR".
ReplyDeleteThe irony is, one of these days, one of those old guys is going to be right. Because eventually the world will end, so sooner or later, if humans live long enough, and if we haven't yet eradicated the "panic" gene, then one of these old timers will finally be right.
Whats sad is to think of all the time they wasted though, standing there with that stupid sign.
people who pulled their funds out definitely didn't stop to read this blog.
ReplyDeleteThey usually watched CNBC or Bloomburg, and after a year of falling prices they started to remove what they could to preserve wealth they could.
I ain't the crisis even if you want to believe I am like Voltron claimed I controlled the media.
Chicken little said;
ReplyDeleteborrowing beyond your means was the crisis, but we refused to admit it till the bills started coming due.
Bullshit.
You make us sound like a bunch of college coeds using daddys credit cards.
You're rehashing BUZZWORDS handed to you by the media to sell your panic crisis.
And when they hand you new ones next year when it turns around, you'll be in here selling them too.
You are indeed the little, gray haired old man with the long flowing beard we are all so familiar with. Standing on a street corner with a sign saying, "THE END IS NEAR".
ReplyDeletestraw man number 5.
I never said the end is near,
I said do reasonable things to resolve the crisis and get the whole economy on better leggs to move forward.
The only ones borrowing beyond their means over and above the usual default rates, were SOME of the new loan packages offered by some of the less scrupulous lenders.
ReplyDeleteMOST loans were and are good.
You are now spreading lies sold to you courtesy, REALTY TRAC.
You make us sound like a bunch of college coeds using daddys credit cards.
ReplyDeleteSorry but that is what many people did, thru sub prime and re-finance to remove equity from their houses.
You know what one of the biggest fears is right now on the trading floors this morning Clif?
ReplyDeleteThat panic, spurned on by this being the THIRTEENTH, will cause a run on the market.
Its the 13th, and the trading floor is worried that investors will pull their money for fear of a crash.
Which of course, will cause a crash.
:|
Don't try and tell me the markets aren't driven by emotions.
Don't try and tell me the markets aren't driven by emotions.
ReplyDeleteWell bart, if "friday the thirteenth" is gonna cause a crash, I can't stop it, especially if that is the reason anybody buys or sells.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteSorry but that is what many people did, thru sub prime and re-finance to remove equity from their houses.
SOME PEOPLE LIAR.
Not LOTS of them.
SOME.
A SMALL percentage of OVERALL mortgages.
1 percent of mortgages written last year failed. ONE percent.
Up from a half percent in 06.
You and your bullshit panic and wanting to be right crap, makes you sell that shit.
Its not true.
What do you think happens to 4 MILLION investors, who have between them approximately 40 million properties hence 40 million mortgages, ..... what do you think happens when lenders stop lending mortgages?
ReplyDeleteHUH GENIUS?
They DEFAULT.
Bart sorry but more people used their homes as ATM's then the number of mortgages failed.
ReplyDeleteI know quite a few who refinanced to get money like one of my neighbors, younger sister and older brother did. Right now they can afford their payments but owe much more this year then they did before they refinanced.
And that is just ONE example.
ReplyDeleteLENDING IS THE KEY.
Without it we are taking a crisis of one size and turning it into a HUGE CRISIS MUCH MUCH BIGGER!!!
Where would we be right now if we hadn't lost 2 trillion dollars on the stock market last week? Huh?
WHERE?
I'll tell you where dumbass. We'd be BETTER OFF THAN WE ARE NOW.
Sorry bart but your anger is misdirected, I didn't cause this problem and unless Lydia directly tells me to leave you ain't gonna drive me off.
ReplyDeleteSo get as angry as you want but it ain't my fault.
clif said...
ReplyDeleteBart sorry but more people used their homes as ATM's then the number of mortgages failed.
You are sorry clif.
Real sorry.
Because we've already agreed SOME people. But not ALL of them.
So STOP SAYING IT.
Those people didn't cause the stock market to lose 2 TRILLION dollars last week.
WHINING IDIOTS LIKE YOU DID.
Sorry bart but I didn't cause that fall either.
ReplyDeleteclif said...
ReplyDeleteSorry bart but your anger is misdirected, I didn't cause this problem and unless Lydia directly tells me to leave you ain't gonna drive me off.
Oh go fuck yourself.
I told you I didn't want to discuss this with you any more.
WHINING IDIOTS LIKE YOU DID.
ReplyDeleteNo bart the CDS and CDO crisis did NOT me.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteclif said...
Sorry bart but your anger is misdirected, I didn't cause this problem and unless Lydia directly tells me to leave you ain't gonna drive me off.
Oh go fuck yourself.
I told you I didn't want to discuss this with you any more.
then why are YOU, I am NOT forcing you to do anything
Don't worry yourself clif, I'm done arguing with you about this.
ReplyDeleteLive in your panic.
Cherish it.
Embrace doom and gloom and all that is grim.
Because its all you apparently can see in life.
Its all I've ever heard from you on this blog, thats for sure.
Nothing but grim. Always with the Chicken Little act. The sky is falling. The sky is falling.
God you depress me.
enjoy bart
ReplyDeletehope you feel better.
I do, as soon as I get away from you and your doom and gloom end of the world bullshit.
ReplyDeleteFor example, perhaps you haven't seen this yet.
AP
Most Asian markets rise after last week's rout
Monday October 13, 1:07 am ET
By Jeremiah Marquez, AP Business Writer
Most Asian markets higher after last week's rout amid global efforts to aid financial system
HONG KONG (AP) --
Most Asian stock markets recovered Monday after last week's historic sell-off as governments in Europe and beyond intensified efforts to stabilize the world's troubled financial system.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which tumbled more than 7 percent Friday, rose about 478.80 points higher, or 3.24 percent, at 15,275.67.
In Australia, the S&P/ASX200 index was up 4.71 percent in response to a government plan to guarantee bank and other lender deposits for three years. The benchmark plunged over 8 percent on Friday, its biggest single-day fall ever.
See Clif, it WORKED in the great depression, and it CAN work now, if we let it. And with effort, intelligent moves, timing and POSITIVE ATTITUDES, we can turn this economy around and get it moving forward again and put people back to work.
Oh sure we'll hit some bumps in the road, and there are problems that may not be fully solved in our lifetimes.
The best change is evolutionary and evolution takes time. Rapid changes tend to be species and even planet killers. Moderate change, is the way to go.
And in the meantime, focusing on stopping the bleeding is the only thing that matters, because if we don't stop the bleeding, long term health care won't do much good.
After all, what good is long term health care on a cadaver?
It's just plain damned silly to continue to insist that structural problems aren't at the root of the credit crisis and the plunge in stocks. Some of us have been screaming for years that this had to happen, and we've got previous data to back us up. This is no surprise, and a smile on your face won't change the numbers.
ReplyDeleteKrugman Wins Nobel In Economics
ReplyDeletePrinceton University professor and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman has been awarded the Nobel economics prize for his work on free trade.
No, its just plain damn silly to not admit that the stock markets move on EMOTION.
ReplyDeleteFEAR.
AND CONFIDENCE.
And those two emotions are tenuous at best.
Everyone knows that.
Except apparently you two.
It was fear and panic that caused investors to pull out of both the stocks, and the securities, and its confidence that brings them back to the bargaining table.
ReplyDeleteIf you two knew anything at all about stock investments, instead of just googling articles on the internet, you'd know that.
But you two keep with your doom and gloom scenarios all you want.
ReplyDeleteFortunately, as you said, most people aren't listening to you two defeatists.
Most people are listening to what works, and what doesn't, and the EU and Bush are doing the right things right now, albeit a day late and trillion dollars short, and things can work.
In spite of loser mentalitites like yours.
Wall Street soars as government pledges bank aid
ReplyDeleteBy TIM PARADIS, AP Business Writer
1 minute ago
NEW YORK - Wall Street snapped back from last week's devastating losses after major governments announced further steps to support the global banking system, including plans by the U.S. Treasury to buy stocks of some banks. All the major indexes rose about 7 percent, and the Dow Jones industrials rose as much as 600 points.
The hope on Wall Street was that the market was finding a bottom after eight sessions of devastating losses that sent the Dow down nearly 2,400 points. But while a rebound had been expected at some point, investors can expect to see back-and-forth trading in the coming days and weeks as investors work through their concerns about the banking sector, the stagnant credit markets and the overall economy.
investors can expect to see back-and-forth trading in the coming days and weeks as investors work through their CONCERNS about the banking sector,
ReplyDeleteEmotions drive our markets.
ReplyDeleteConfidence.
And FEAR.
And Lydia may not be a financial genius, I don't know, but she's a genius in this respect.
FEAR is the enemy.
She was right all along.
E said...
ReplyDeleteNo, its just plain damn silly to not admit that the stock markets move on EMOTION.
FEAR.
AND CONFIDENCE.
And those two emotions are tenuous at best.
Everyone knows that.
Except apparently you two."
Who said the stock markets DONT move on emotion.................we're not in complete agreement on EVERY issue but on the majority we ALL agree we ALL AGREE on what needs to be done here.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteIt was fear and panic that caused investors to pull out of both the stocks, and the securities, and its confidence that brings them back to the bargaining table.
If you two knew anything at all about stock investments, instead of just googling articles on the internet, you'd know that."
Your right about the fear caused the panic but what I dont think your factoring in is that the Recession hasnt hit yet..........its just STARTING to hit and when it does earnings will be be crushed and people will stop spending BECAUSE of the layoffs, stock losses, excessive debt and tighter credit..........thats what much of the fear is based on.
The Greatest minds out there, Krugman, Robertson Schiff ALL said this will be a NASTY Recession/Depression that will last a MINIMUM of 10 years Consumerism and materialism is OVER Lydia talked about this 2 years ago.
Julian Robertson just predicted 10-15 years of pain and the need to live within our means.
Thats the problem with these reckless debt and credit fueled phony expansions they are unsustainable and when they do end they end in spectacular fashion with exponentionally more pain than if we alloweed a natural recession based on market forcers to occur.
Greenspans unatural bubble blowing to prevent much needed natural recessions is like Dorian Gray's making a deal with the devil to avoid aging or Gollum using the Ring to stretch out his life unaturally.........sure they live longer but its unatural and the quality of life is not there its likeliving a lie or mortgaging your future and sacrificing the quality of life to stretch it beyond what it should be.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteBut you two keep with your doom and gloom scenarios all you want.
Fortunately, as you said, most people aren't listening to you two defeatists.
Most people are listening to what works, and what doesn't, and the EU and Bush are doing the right things right now, albeit a day late and trillion dollars short, and things can work.
In spite of loser mentalitites like yours."
LOSER MENTALITIES?????????
I've advocateed doing EXACTLY wghat you are NOW advocating............I said a month ago we NEEDED to have a banking holiday to make sure the banks were adaquately capitalized to lend I said we needed to help homeowners as well and rebuild infrastructure , I ALSO said that the Fed SHOULD guarentee intrabank loans just like Europe did and just like they will EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DO HERE...........i'm saying the SAME things YOU ARE...........how is that a loser mentality.
The only area where we differ is how bad this will get EVEN IF the right things are done.......thats the ONLY area we seem to differ!
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteinvestors can expect to see back-and-forth trading in the coming days and weeks as investors work through their CONCERNS about the banking sector,"
Your right, things will likely trade up and down in a trading range till the economic fundamentals like earnings, employment deteriorates as well as the tighter credit standards limiting spending filter through.
Mike said
ReplyDeleteThe only area where we differ is how bad this will get EVEN IF the right things are done.......thats the ONLY area we seem to differ!
Not the only area Mike.
Where our paths truly diverge is in that I know that our future woes will be directly related to our levels of negative talk, fearmongering and the spread of panic.
I'm not saying thats the ONLY factor.
But its a MAJOR one.
If people didn't panic last week, we wouldn't have lost almost 2 TRILLION dollars on the stock exchange.
Just think where we'd be right now, with the same plans we're working on now, but WITH that 2 TRILLION dollars.
The losses we experience due to panic spreading are real, and they AMPLIFY our problems.
Its like standing over a cancer patient and saying to them "CANCER KILLS YOU'RE GONNA DIE, CANCER KILLS YOU'RE GONNA DIE".
:|
You'd be right, cancer DOES kill.
And EVERYONE dies.
But Cancer can also be REVERSED, and the patient CAN live out a long healthy life.
IF, as thousands of studies has shown, the patient is bombarded with POSITIVE messages, instead of negative ones.
And if I ever DO get cancer?
ReplyDeletePlease keep Clif away from my hospital bed.
:p
Fear is one of the MOST powerful emotions you CANTstop a panic once it starts, once you SEE the herd mentality develping you have to decide if its going to get bad enough where you must choose between being a casualty or a survivor.........I NEVER panic, i've NEVER sold out of stocks in the last 12 years regardless of what happened.
ReplyDeleteMe selling my assets wasnt panic but the result of rational though...........I know its going to go lower over the next few years...........i FULLY realized this was panic selling and it would probably rally this week and i was sacrificing some money but we are no where near a bottom and I wanted to play it safe and preserve what i have and get out.
Nasty bear markets take years to hit their lows and DECADES to recover the Depression took about 25 years for people to make their money back................Japan's stock index is STILL at about 1/4 of its peak value after almost 20 years..........assets only have the value people are willing to assign to them it doesnt matter what stocks or houses were selling for before it ONLY matters what people are willing to pay for them now.
You can say many investors in the market panicked last week and you would be correct to I Mike paniced would be false, my actions were based on calm cool rational thought, i orobably left thousands pon the table by not waiting till today to sell i'm fine with that i can sleep fine at night.
To be a top notch investor you HAVE to not let enotoions rule you and you need ice running through your veins you have dispasionately write off losses when you realize they are losses and you shouldnt be at the table if you cant handle the risk of losing money..........THATS what most of these people dont get Greenspan sold people on the idea that you didnt take on increased risk to get higher returns.
ReplyDeleteBack in 1999 and 2000 my best friend and i were day trading stocks and sometimes making 4 to 5 figures on a trade well i gave him the name of a stock i had jumped in and out of and made about $17.000 so far that year he bought it and the market crashed in 2000 and the stock went down to pennies and NEVER recovered i sold the stock that year for a loss and wrote off the loss on my taxes and moved on.............my friend despite me telling him to dump it and take the big tax right off still clings to that loser to this day refusing to sell it.
bottom line you cant let emotions or the fear of taking losses blind you if you think something will comeback and you'll make money then fine ride it out but if you know something wont come back and there are better opportunities elsewhere you dump the stock and dont look back.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteFear is one of the MOST powerful emotions you CANTstop a panic once it starts
Well you sure as hell can't stop it if you keep spreading it.
If you think you can, or if you think you can't, you're right.
ReplyDeleteThe selling we just witnessed was the result of panic for whats coming and some fear as well...........the NEXT sell off will be the result of deterioration of the fundamentals of the economy.
ReplyDeleteMike, I refuse to go ring around the rosy with you and the other prophets of doom here.
ReplyDeleteBelieve what you want.
You're wrong, but believe it anyway.
Just don't try and drag me down into your panic filled despair.
We just might pull through this thing, in SPITE of fearmongers like you.
Mike said...
ReplyDeletebottom line you cant let emotions or the fear of taking losses blind you if you think something will comeback and you'll make money then fine ride it out but if you know something wont come back and there are better opportunities elsewhere you dump the stock and dont look back.
Bullshit. Talk to an investment banker.
You WEATHER THE STORM.
Stocks are best used for the LONG HAUL.
And brokers always advise "gamblers" like you to stay OUT of stocks, because you buy and sell based on what you see TODAY.
You can't judge a stock, or your profits based on where it is now, but where its going to be TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
If you can't handle the long haul then you shouldn't be putting your money in the markets in the first place.
I'm not spreading fear i'm spreading facts............look i manage ALL my parents life savings i thought it was time to get out they lost 40% or so, you said your brother lost 70%...........would it be a badge of honor for them to stand pat and lose ANOTHER 15% to 20%.
ReplyDeleteSometimes fear is healthy.............there is a HUGE difference between reacting blindly and panicing out of fear and making a calm logical and rational decision because of fear.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteI'm not spreading fear i'm spreading facts
So is the chucklehead standing over the cancer patient telling him he's got cancer, and is going to die.
He is spreading FACTS.
The patient DOES have cancer.
And EVERYONE dies.
But the way he's spreading the facts, is the problem. Because the patient MAY recover.
Assuming someone gets the prophet of doom out of his room.
What you're doing is focusing on the negatives, and spreading that.
ReplyDeleteIf you yell at a Cancer patient for a week that he's got cancer and will die, he probably will.
But if you have a little faith, and try POSITIVE attitudes, theres a chance he can pull through.
But not if you won't stop whining.
The many of the higher ups at places i've worked used that negative crap when i use facts to say their agenda wont work and time and time again what i've said has proven right.................the truth is not negative, the truth is not partisan ............the truth is simply the truth.
ReplyDeleteI would much rather be wrong and have you be right but mark my words by the end of 2009 unemployment will be at at least 8% and the DOW will have at least touched 6500 if not lower.
Anyway, I won't sit her arguing with you.
ReplyDeleteI've had some successes in my own personal finances recently, and I know others who have too. We're working towards the POSITIVE, and focusing on what WORKS, not what doesn't.
You know, one of my favorite all time movies was APOLLO 13. One of the things that struck me was the polarity of opinions between Gene Krantz and some of the directors at the Flight Control center.
Krantz knew that the ODDS were, these pilots were dead.
They didn't have enough fuel, there was NO way to come up with it, and the command module was out of power.
Everyone in the control room was like you.
Bombarding Krantz and the crew, with FACTS.
All the negatives.
Krantz got angry and told everyone to just stop with the doom and gloom. He pointed out that he didn't CARE about the negatives, he cared about what WORKED.
He demanded they focus on what worked, and not what did not.
And when they suggested tapping into the LEM batteries to power the spacecraft on decent, and everyone at Grumman said it wouldn't work and couldn't be done, Ken Mattingly climbed into the simulator and spent DAYS there, UNTIL he figured out a way to make it work.
Everyone was consigned to failure, based on the FACTS.
Gene Krantz however rebuked them, and thats when he coined that immortal phrase "FAILURE IS NOT AN OPTION".
Failure is NOT an option here Mike, and one of our biggest problems is guys like you insisting that it is.
Like I told Clif last night.
ReplyDeleteIf this were the titantic, and I were the Purser, I'd be loading my side arm right about now.
My faith is if we do the right things like we all AGREE on we can AVOID a DEpression with 30% unemployment and maybe just have another 10 years of recession with 15% unemployment.
ReplyDeleteMy faith is that we get past all the consumerism and blind greed and get back to sound economic policies, get past the partisanship and start actually coperating and caring about each other and going out of our way to help each other.
Lydia talked about this in one of her posts 2 years ago and what she said was brilliant.
My great Grandmother used to tell me stories about growing up in Russia during the precursors of the revolution in the late 1800's and early 1900's, she came from a family of 14, she said they were very poor but they lived on a farm and had mor than many they lived in a small house with a dirt floor and would share their last bread wth hungry stangers and invite them in to sleep for the night to get out of the cold...........until we get back to that kind of we are all in this together mentality and start saving money instead of the reckless consumerism being promoted by shills like Greenspan, Bush, Bernanke, Paulson..........we will NEVER move forward.
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteMy faith is if we do the right things like we all AGREE on we can AVOID a DEpression with 30% unemployment and maybe just have another 10 years of recession with 15% unemployment.
And thats mealy mouthed whining bullshit.
Doom and gloom garbage.
You don't know that.
You're not factoring in any new industry, stimulus, plans and ideas, etc.
Its a LOSERS mentality.
Its doom and gloom bullshit like that, that is why the problems we are having right now, are so severe.
Put away your fear. Stop with the negative, and PUT YOUR BEST FACE FORWARD.
Be brave.
Be confident.
Have faith.
And ENCOURAGE others, instead of constantly discouraging them.
:|
Honestly you're as bad as clif.
People like you predicted the EXACT SAME THING in the 1980's.
ReplyDeleteI know. I was there and I was an adult with money. And everyone said similar things about where we'd be for the next 10 years.
Then the computer industry took off and it all changed.
Your doom and gloom figures make no room for new technologies and industries that are coming, and coming soon.
Your doom and gloom figures make no room for new economic stimulus and incentives and ideas.
They're just DOOM AND GLOOM talk.
LOSER talk.
And you're not dragging me down to your little mans world of depression and mediocrity.
Theres all SORTS of possibilities on our horizon.
Our BEST days are YET TO COME.
FAILURE is not an option, except for LOSERS, and we'll get there, in SPITE of loser mentalities like yours.
Just wait till the GREEN technologies start stampeding across our economic front.
ReplyDeleteYou'll see.
Our BEST DAYS are YET to come.
And we have nothing to fear, except fear, and those spreading it.
ReplyDeleteExercise caution in your business affairs, for the world is full of trickery.
ReplyDeleteBut let not this blind you to what virtue there is;
Many persons strive for high ideals, and everywhere life is full of heroism
Desiderata
Max Ehrmann
Depends how you define failure............i'm saying we need to move forward implement the measures we ALL AGREE on and suck it up and deal with the pain..................you used an analogy of a cancer patient, well to survive cancer most people suck it up and endure chemo and radiation that is EXTREMELY painful and debilitating in order to survive and recover at a later time rather than just being in denial and NOT taking the chemo and radiation and telling themselves everything will be fine................I know my father got chemo and radiation and was VERY sick we didnt think he'd make it but he's still here and doing ok despite the doctots forcasts he wouldnt live a year but bottom line he took his medicine dealt with the pain and moved forward rather than denying it.
ReplyDeleteRocky were some of my favorite movies and two things that stood out for me when he said a little fear is healthy, it keeps you sharp as long as it doesnt get out of control and consume you................the other thing he said is its not how hard you hit but how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward thats how winning is done.
we need to stay positive and keep moving forward but in order to do that we NEED to take our medicine deal with the pain and shake of the economic snake oil being propagated by hacks like Greenspan, GWB etc...........debt and tax cuts for the rich are not healthy or good...........its insanity to think we can spend our way to prosperity with MORE reckless debt.
Inflation is NOT the anmswer and that seems to be the route many of these political hacks are pushing us towards.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteJust wait till the GREEN technologies start stampeding across our economic front.
You'll see.
Our BEST DAYS are YET to come."
Agreed investing in Green infrastructure and creating GOOD paying jobs in that industry is whats going to pull us out of this but it takes time.............we need to be oil independent in the next 15 years and we need Green industries to be an engine of job creation...........but it takes time for those things to happen.
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ReplyDeleteIn the 80's there were thousands of people like you, predicting the next 10 years would be "slow growth", "high unemployment" and "recession".
ReplyDeleteAnd they were ALL WRONG.
The FACTS they spouted were essentially valid, but were limited in their vision.
You don't know WHAT new technology boom is waiting around the corner. I'm not talking about hybrid cars or windmills.
I'm talking BIG technology changes.
You don't know WHATS going to happen, but for some reason you have no problem declaring the next 10 years IF we work hard enough, will be fraught with recession and 10 percent unemployment.
Its a losers prediction.
Its a losers future.
And its not OUR future.
Its just your fears.
And Mike?
ReplyDeleteThis isn't personal. I still like you and enjoy talking to you.
But I have a very low tolerance level for negative people and negative thinking.
And right now, when the world needs your POSITIVE thinking more than ever, all you can do is provide negative predictions that you have no way of predicting.
Don't take it personal. I wanted to avoid that with Clif last night. But I have an extremely low tolerance for negativity.
And I think if you muse on it a while, you'll get it.
Faith moves mountains.
Despair moves bowels.
BARTLEBEE said...
ReplyDeleteAnd Mike?
This isn't personal. I still like you and enjoy talking to you.
But I have a very low tolerance level for negative people and negative thinking.
And right now, when the world needs your POSITIVE thinking more than ever, all you can do is provide negative predictions that you have no way of predicting.
Don't take it personal. I wanted to avoid that with Clif last night. But I have an extremely low tolerance for negativity.
And I think if you muse on it a while, you'll get it.
Faith moves mountains.
Despair moves bowels."
I know its not personal and i still enjoy talking to you but the economy and stock markets move in secular cycles generally there are 15-20 year bull markets and 15-20 year bear markets with short counter trend corrections to each secular trend from 1966-1982 was a bear market, from 1983-2000 was a bull market...............I just think its beyond hubris for Greenspan or anyone else for that matter to THINK they can PREVENT recessions and bear markets with unatural manipulation and that will somehow make sunny days and rising stock markets forever......................just like there is winter and summer there are recessions and expansions and bull and bear markets.
They are natural and neccessary phenomenon and attempting to prevent bear markets and recessions by cutting interest rates, encouraging people to go into debt and run up their credit cards and printing excessive money is akin to burning lots of carbon and promoting global warming to TRY and PREVENT winter...........that type of hubris causes the unbalances to multipy and create much worse problems to deal with in the future............its impossible to have endless summer and sunny skies just as it is to have endless expansions and bull markets.............the business cycle is a healthy and natural phenomenon and it cant be controlled by pompous greedy men like Greenspan.
Greenspan is a liar and a coward in his hubris he boasted he would LOVE to fight off a Depression he said he KNEW how to do it and he would welcome and relish the opportunity to beat a Depression.............when the conditions for one to ACTUALLY appear materialized due to his arrogant and misguided polices Allan Greenspan ran away like a cowardly little bitch and left some other poor sap to hold the bag.
Recessions and bear markets are opposites of expansions and bull markets just like summer is the opposite of winter or life is the opposite of death..........I think viewing natural and neccessary phenomenons as NEGATIVE is part of the problem here.........Sure the trees and flowes die in winter but they come come back and bloom again, winter makes many of us appreciate Summer MORE, it also gives us the opportunity to sled, sli, snowmobile build snowmen, fire, it kills allergies, celebrate the holidays etc.........death also makes many appreciate life more and live it more fully.*
We've dealt with 10%-15% unemployment in the early 1980's and we came back stronger, dealing with the adverse often makes us stronger and wiser and better people just like Winter makes many appreciate summer MORE.
See its that mentality that anything inconvienient or unpleasant is negative and should be avoided is whats going to die with consumerism.
Bart, do me a favor, if you have time watch Jim Kramer on CNBC tonight he's discussing the same things we are and he's a real smart guy and he's not negative in the least just honest.........he has to be his credibility and reputation is on the line.
ReplyDeleteI know who Jim Cramer is Mike, and I know what he has to say.
ReplyDeleteDo me a favor, and don't try and drag me down into your losers dungeon by getting me to listen to pinhead analysts who say what their media masters tell them to say.
I know whats going on. I tried to tell you in October.
You don't want to listen, instead you want to join in the failure talk. Fine. Join in.
But when Obama wins next month, and things stabilize and return, then you'll see what this was all about.
Until then, I cannot help you.
Mike said...
ReplyDelete.I think viewing natural and neccessary phenomenons as NEGATIVE is part of the problem here.........Sure the trees and flowes die in winter but they come come back and bloom again
Mike.
You just predicted a decade of recession and 15 percent unemployment.
And that was your "rosy" scenario.
You're wrong.
And theres nothing natural about the Congress freezing up lending last October with their scare talk.
NOTHING.
You and clif can put your heads together and pull ever doom and gloom prediction and figure you can come up with but it won't change a thing.
Fear is the problem, and losers spread fear and winners spread confidence.
The stock market climbed almost ONE THOUSAND POINTS today, and you want to cry about recessions and doom and gloom.
And millions of people like you want to do likewise.
Which is the bulk of the problem we face right now.
IMMEDIATE losses are being caused by panic and fear and those translate into long term loss.
We are bleeding, because you guys won't let anyone bandage the wounds, but want to talk about the lifestyle the led to getting the wound.
When the patients on the gurney, bleeding because he got stabbed in a bar fight, bringing a counseler in to work through the reasons he goes to the bar is not going to help.
One day maybe you'll make money Mike. I mean real money. And when you do, it will be because you learned 2 key lessons all successfull business people learn.
1. TIMING is everything
2. NEGATIVITY is the anti-thesis of success.
And don't kid yourself about needing to tell "me" to listen to Jim Cramer, or anyone for that matter. I listen to ALL of the financial analysts, and I watch CNN while I work, every business day. I read the Wall Street Journal and I know what they have to say. And they're being PAID to say that, by their media masters, who have their own particular axe to grind.
ReplyDeleteJim Cramer is as irresponsible of an analyst as has ever existed. He should not only be fired for telling people last week to pull their money out of the stock market, he should be put in jail for it.
He cost this country MILLIONS in losses due to his panic spread last week, telling people to pull their money out of the stock market.
They did, and it crashed.
Its as simple as that.
Jim Cramer is a paid corporate media HACK and he right now is one of the main problems.
He has no solutions. Just panic.