THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM is a terrific spy-thriller, but if this is the way the NSA is spying on us, then we don't stand a chance of ever getting our "freedoms" back. It also closely parallels what is going on in the Bush administration today. It's a socio-political parable. I got goosebumps at the chilling way it mimics exactly what is going on right now in America, in the CIA and with our troops. Watch the ending. Let me know what you think. - Lydia More on that later...
Where Have All Our Freedoms Gone?
Guest Blog by Larry
On a balmy day many decades ago, the Senate of Rome voted overwhelmingly to make Ceasar their Emperor. It was also a balmy day in America, as the U.S Senate voted 60-28 to violate the constitution and allow George W Bush the freedom to spy without warrant on any American he may choose.
The Senate, who is controlled by the Democratic majority was told by George W Bush, that they couldn't go on their month long summer vacation until they agreed on his desire to spy on every American.
This is another freedom that has been taken away by those we elect to protect our interests. The Congress has already allowed Mr. Bush to send the FBI to enter your house without a warrant and without your permission, did you know that?
The government can read your postal mail without your permission, do you realize that? The National Security Agency can read your e-mail and listen to your private phone conversations, are you aware of that?
Congress gave Mr. Bush the right to install the "Patriot Act" which in essence allows the government to arrest anyone they "suspect" may commit a crime in the future. This act requires no warrant.
The entire Congress gave Mr. Bush the right to institute Martial Law on the citizens of the U.S, for any reason, any time he so chooses. This act was done, by Executive order, with little opposition from Congress.
Where have our other freedoms gone? Our assets can now be seized by the government if it is decided a citizen may be interfering with Bush's duties as President by protesting the Iraq war.
George W. Bush was demanding that Congress rewrite the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), so that the U.S. government can more easily spy, not on terrorists, but rather on innocent Americans. Bush has his wish and each American will pay the price.
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose giving Bush the right to spy on each of us without warrant and without cause. What about the rights of "We the People" or does it really matter.
It doesn't matter because, if these past six-plus years have taught "We the People" anything, it has taught us that America can survive terrorist attacks, but can it survive the threat posed by the extremist agenda espoused and practiced by the dictatorship of George W Bush and today's Republican Party.
*****************
This morning from 8-9 a.m. PST Basham and Cornell discuss the new law Bush signed giving himself unlimited spying powers and condoning all the laws he broke the past 6 years.
If you're in Vegas, tune in to: KLAV 1230 to listen live or on the interent BASHAM AND CORNELL PROGRESSIVE TALK
Nevada is a red state, but we have the ONLY Progressive Talk-radio show in Las Vegas! Basham and Cornell Show is now a DAILY SHOW! Tune in LIVE FROM 8-9 a.m. Monday thru Friday online or live from LAS VEGAS (KLAV 1230) BASHAM AND CORNELL PROGRESSIVE TALK
Watched a film Saturday night (came with our DVD club) called The Shooter.
ReplyDeleteAt first I was not too keen, Marky Mark, lives in a cabin in the woods, (rolling my eyes) but I told Jim "Sure, why not."
Anyway, it turned out to be a film that totally indicts the US government.
The best tag line came from the sleazy, Cheney-like senate character played by the splendid Ned Beatty who tells Marky Mark:
"There are no Sunnis, or Shias. There are no Democrats or Republicans. Only the haves and the have-nots."
Truer words were never spoken.
Any rights we had left, got washed away in 2000.
ReplyDeleteI liked what you said about the Bourne Supremcy Lydia. I haven't seen it yet but it sounds good.
ReplyDeleteThey talked a lot about what NSA can do in the 1998 classic, "Enemy of the State".
I suggest watching that again with new eyes.
And there are many more illegal acts being carried out that we yet don't know about.
ReplyDeleteAnd I still believe that they will not give up the power or Dictatorship they have established.
God Bless us all.
It's only a matter of time, my friends.
ReplyDeleteThe Federal Government is going to go broke. When that happens, they'll be able to fund neither their brownshirts from Blackwater, nor the Armed Forces.
I urge all of you again to go look at the USSR, from about 1985 to 1991. And pay special attention to the dryup of debtors that took place during the Gorbachev era.
This is almost over, and the last chapter won't be a pretty one. Will we go as the USSR went, or will we go as Yugoslavia went? I'd say we have a 50/50 chance of going either way.
It is indeed a sad state of affairs.
ReplyDeleteThis play is not over because there is one large economic move for the fed to run with, the energy markets and the bubble higher prices will create for the speculators to "make money" off of.
ReplyDeleteThe fed used the biotech bubble then the tech bubble, and the housing bubble to cover up the loss of economic worth when the industrial base was outsourced, and they have the energy markets to use this time before they collapse, just like the other bubbles collapsed.
With the energy bubble, the speculators need to prop up the dollar one more time. The foreign governments holding those dollars need to play along and prop up the dollar for as long as they can to preserve the values of the holdings they have.
This means that energy markets will see wild speculations, at the same time prices are inflated by both speculation, and of course the inability of the oil speculators to find new large fields, to generate more supplies to meet the ever growing demands, and when this happens the wild rides will be unprecedented.
That plus the "plunge protection team of the Fed manipulating the stock markets to artificially inflate prices to keep up the illusion of everything is just fine, will keep the economy together for a little longer, but in the end the crash will be worse because of everyone who loses jobs homes and their entire wealth in the interim, and of course all who lose all in the coming crash.
It ain't over but they are starting the final act.
Christopher - Phil, Worf, Jolly Roger, Tomcat, Anon Paranoid - it's interesting but I saw 3 movie previews that are all big-budget anti-government movies.
ReplyDeleteShooter now sounds interesting.
Just like "All the President's Men -- I think the people are going to be swayed a lot more subconsciously by films and our voices in unison -- than we realize.
We cannot ever just give up and say democracy is over. We have to hang on and reverse this insanity, and because this is a universe of laws (principle) right always wins. There is no power in fear except that which you give it.
But we have to speak up and never back down. The Democrats in Congress seem lazy. They didn't want to read the fine print and Bush never levels -- so he pushed them to make a quick decision without reading or changing the FISA law appropriately.
Let's hope the 6-month deadline is real and doesn't have some trap door trickery.
I like the idea of a Constitutional amendment for the PEOPLE to bypass Congress and vote to remove Bush from office. He is ruining our country and may even be committing treason -- as you'll see someone in the Bourne Ultimatum does as well.
I like the idea of a Constitutional amendment for the PEOPLE to bypass Congress and vote to remove Bush from office.
ReplyDeleteKa-Ching!
If Nancy "Bush isn't worth impeaching" Pelosi can't or won't follow the guidelines provided to her in the Constitution, then she and Steny Hoyer must be made irrelevant to removing Bush and Cheney from office.
Bush has roughly 16 months remaining on the clock (barring a staged terrorist attack that would trigger the provision in the USA Patriot that suspends elections) which is more than enough time for him to continue his destructive path and possibly even war with Iran and now, Pakistan.
Bush is insane. He doesn't belong in the Oval Office. He belongs in a facility under the care of doctors who can properly treat him.
He's a danger to this nation and the rest of the world.
'The Federal Government is going to go broke. When that happens, they'll be able to fund neither their brownshirts from Blackwater, nor the Armed Forces.
ReplyDelete[from jolly roger's comment]
maybe THIS accounts for last week's bill to seize the assets of anyone who disagrees with the gov't. they need the money. wouldn't surprise me in the least.
hi Lydia--
ReplyDelete'because this is a universe of laws (principle) right always wins.'
this statement you made does seem to hold true in the historic sense -- eventually. right does seem to triumph in the end.
unfortunately, lots of people [11,000,000 during WWII] can die before that happens. and that doesn't count the scores of millions who were physically and emotionally wounded during that one war, alone.
so far, in the Iraq war alone, we're at about the 1-million-dead mark right now. that's a pretty high price to pay for something that wouldn't have happened if the Supreme Court hadn't been bought and paid for before this whole thing began in 2000.
Two Crows, well put and I agree with you. But we can't let ourselves spiral downward into fatalistic thinking and lose hope the way some are already doing.
ReplyDeleteAll challenges are meant to be overcome and this is exactly the point where we all come together and turn it around. Not just physically (through words, writing, action, gathering) but metaphysically -- by keeping our thoughts on our goals, the way THEY do with single-minded purpose. We must keep our thoughts uplifted. I've had absolute miracles through changing my thought -- complete reversals of catastrophes in the face of overwhelming physical evidence that would suggest this is impossible. Actually these are natural laws, but we fail to use them. More later on this -
As Emerson said... "This is a spiritual universe and thoughts rule the world...
I just left a message on your amazing blog.
Thank you,
xo
Right wins as often as wrong, in my opinion, because as right wins, wrong regroups for another fight.
ReplyDeleteName one "right" that has prevailed over the milennia.
Lydia Cornell said...
ReplyDeleteI like the idea of a Constitutional amendment for the PEOPLE to bypass Congress and vote to remove Bush from office. He is ruining our country and may even be committing treason -- as you'll see someone in the Bourne Ultimatum does as well.
-------------------
Hi Lydia:
I agree! That is an excellent idea! :)
It doesn't matter because, if these past six-plus years have taught "We the People" anything, it has taught us that America can survive terrorist attacks, but can it survive the threat posed by the extremist agenda espoused and practiced by the dictatorship of George W Bush and today's Republican Party.
ReplyDelete--------------------
Larry:
Exactly! America has changed and it is NOT for the better...
P.S.
ReplyDeleteGreat post Larry! :)
Larry, Excellent post, you covered everything and hit bulls eyes on all counts of what is actually going on.
ReplyDeleteLydia Cornell said...
ReplyDeleteChristopher - Phil, Worf, Jolly Roger, Tomcat, Anon Paranoid - it's interesting but I saw 3 movie previews that are all big-budget anti-government movies.
Shooter now sounds interesting.
Just like "All the President's Men -- I think the people are going to be swayed a lot more subconsciously by films and our voices in unison -- than we realize.
We cannot ever just give up and say democracy is over. We have to hang on and reverse this insanity, and because this is a universe of laws (principle) right always wins. There is no power in fear except that which you give it.
But we have to speak up and never back down. The Democrats in Congress seem lazy. They didn't want to read the fine print and Bush never levels -- so he pushed them to make a quick decision without reading or changing the FISA law appropriately.
Let's hope the 6-month deadline is real and doesn't have some trap door trickery.
I like the idea of a Constitutional amendment for the PEOPLE to bypass Congress and vote to remove Bush from office. He is ruining our country and may even be committing treason -- as you'll see someone in the Bourne Ultimatum does as well."
I think you might have been reading my mind here Lydia, while I know you are right and I agree Democracy and Freedom are too precious to EVER truly give up on..............after what the Democrats just did, conceding to ALLOW GWB, to spy on American citizens as well as doing absolutely NOTHING to challenge his self professed ability to seize citizens assets, throw citizens in jail for ANY reason or declare martial law its very tough not to give up it sure looks like democracy is dead.................for me allowing Bush to spy on Americans is the last straw it broke the camels back, it appears the Democrats learned absolutely nothing from being buffaloed into authorizing Bush's war or bush's Patriot Act......I've certainly given u[p on the Democrats, I dont think I can vote for ANY Democrat that voted for this authorization as it shows a lack of good judgement and a lack of courage.
I like the idea of a Constitutional Amendment to remove Bush and Chenet from office I think the people should have the ability to remove ANY representative from office that does not serve their interest and is damaging to the country and that includes Pelosi and reed or are a disgrace!
two crows said...
ReplyDelete'The Federal Government is going to go broke. When that happens, they'll be able to fund neither their brownshirts from Blackwater, nor the Armed Forces.
[from jolly roger's comment]
maybe THIS accounts for last week's bill to seize the assets of anyone who disagrees with the gov't. they need the money. wouldn't surprise me in the least."
Two Crows, i've said the very same thing, I think they will confiscate the money from the opposition to use as war spoils to buy their brownshirt soldiers loyalty...........thats the formula Hitler used and all dictators have used and with our country bankrupt it is really the ONLY way for a bankrupt authoritarian police state to fund the military machine and buy their loyalty..........they literally buy the loyalty of an oppressed underrclass and get them to committ heinous reprehensible acts for the war spoils they crave.
Lydia, I agree with Two Crows, good usually wins in the end...............BUT most government coups and dictatorships usually last a generation or two, that means OUR generation and our childrens is likely lost, particularly when you factor in the Energy crisis.
ReplyDeleteLike I said I wish I would have listened to MORE of my greatgrandmothers stories of Russia during the revolution.........ONE of the few stories I do remember that is forever burned in my mind is how the government would seize peoples assets to fuel the military/police state and how the army took every family or persons first born son into the military for 50 years...........which back then was essentially for life..........Lydia and Worf, I hope you guys dont think i'm being negative here and hate me, but i have to speak my mind on this, i think we need to talk about this and get the word out on where this COULD go so we are not blindsided and taken by surprise.........this isnt pleasant but I think its crucial we talk about this because I honestly think GWB is laying the groiundwork to seize power.
I think he will seize the oppositions assets and use them and their children as cannon fodder in his wars.........unlike Hitler who put to death those he despised, I think GWB will give them the choice fight his wars or world domination or die.
Again i'm sorry guys i'm NOT trying to be the voice of negativity or doom and gloom here, I honestly think it would be a diservice to NOT lay out and discuss what I see unfolding BEFORE its too late, because once it actually happens, once we cross that line it will be too late and there is no going back and we are lost for generations most likely.Once the fascists cement their power and have unassialable unchallened power its too late and ANYONE who opposes them will be made an example of and brutally squashed.
Consider this people, Bush started his spy program BEFORE 9/11thats right before, so if he and eveyone else claims the spy program is BECAUSE of 9/11 we need to start asking questions such as
ReplyDelete1) WHY did the spy program start BEFORE 9/11 and if it did why was it so ineffective in preventing 9/11
2) Why would Bush want to spy on ALL American citizens and better yet WHY would he want to do it before the terrosits attacks of 9/11 that according to him supposedly changed and justified EVERYTHING.
We NEED to start asking questions and asking the RIGHT questions if you want to prevent us from going down a destructive path to oblivion and misery with no like return for generations.
I say Bush started the spy program almost immediately after coming to power and before 9/11 to help him implent his plan to seize ultimate power by learning EXACTLY who his enemies were so he could blaickmail his political opponents and the powerful early on and later to seize his opponents assets or imprison them.
I'm sure Bush has lists of EVERYONE who oppose him, now imagine after declaring martial law people who oppose GWB start disapearing or the assets of millions who oppose him are all seized and used to buy the loyaslty of his brownshirts, imagine many of the poor who are starving and cant feed their families because of the calamity that allowed Bush to declare martial law are suddenly given the option to let their familes starve or to become Bush's brownshirt stormtroopers and do his bidding in which case they will be given a good portion of the confiscated war spoils and possibly comfortable 6 figure incomes or their equivalent...........that formula has been used throughout history to seize and maintain power in military police states, everyone ALWAYS thinks things are different today and history cant repeat itself and THAT think is precisely what helps to make it possible.
Many people seem to act and think that the Bush administration is a legitimate administration ,merely behaving badly or run amuk............I say they have planned a coup to seize ultimate power for a VERY long time rumors say there were plans in the 1970's by MANY of the same Reich Wing idealogues to conquor a oil rich Middle Eastern country. PNAC has a clearly outlined plan for world domination they just needed the time and justification for implementing said plan 9/11 happed EARLY enough in Bush''s administration to have the time to fully implement the plan to seize power and it happened during and despite Bush's spy program that he claims is to keep us safe from terrorists...........consider that one long and hard.
Bush started his spy program BEFORE 9/11...............ask yourself WHY?
Bush is using or I should say wasting alot of resources to spy on ALL Americans not just outgoing international calls to suspected terrorists.........ask your self WHY???
I just watched that video on sirens comparing Bush to Hitler that of course would be denied but is quite chilling in its simple obvious comparisons.
ReplyDeleteAnyway with the ability to break into your house if they deem you a threat that of course means anyone that disagrees with Bush and to my knowledge there have been so far 2 accidental murders as a result of entering the wrong house.
Also the mail, just remember this, that means they can check all mail of those against them and all they have to do is burn it and no one is the wiser.
The eavesdropping and wiretapping that occurs supposedly only from sources outside the country! They get around that to get us on the inside by having anything they want to check out rerouted out side of the country and then back in so they are covered.
Last but not least I am sure. We all need a passport to come and go from the country so they are going to be able to monmitor our every move.
This is not a Democracy any longer. Anyone that thinks it is needs a lobotomy and should watch any one of the myriad of videos comparing Bush to Hitler.
Years ago when I first started comparing them and saying he was purposely destroying our America to replace it with his people were very angry and said no American President would do that. Now everyone is seeing it and it is too late to do anything about it and that's a fact.
All the self deprecating accolades and pats on the back are worthless as Bush is not and will not be stopped while Politicians and media sources play their own selfish games.
A Young Marine Speaks Out
ReplyDeleteby Philip Martin
I'm sick and tired of this patriotic, nationalistic and fascist crap. I stood through a memorial service today for a young Marine that was killed in Iraq back in April. During this memorial a number of people spoke about the guy and about his sacrifice for the country. How do you justify 'sacrificing' your life for a war which is not only illegal, but is being prosecuted to the extent where the only thing keeping us there is one man's power, and his ego. A recent Marine Corps intelligence report that was leaked said that the war in the al-Anbar province is unwinnable. It said that there was nothing we could do to win the hearts and minds, or the military operations in that area. So I wonder, why are we still there? Democracy is not forced upon people at gunpoint. It's the result of forward thinking individuals who take the initiative and risks to give their fellow countrymen a better way of life.
When I joined I took an oath. In that oath I swore to protect the Constitution of the United States. I didn't swear to build democracies in countries on the other side of the world under the guise of "national security." I didn't join the military to be part of an Orwellian ("1984") war machine that is in an obligatory war against whoever the state deems the enemy to be so that the populace can be controlled and riled up in a pro-nationalistic frenzy to support any new and oppressive law that will be the key to destroying the enemy. Example given – the Patriot Act. So aptly named, and totally against all that the constitution stands for. President Bush used the reactionary nature of our society to bring our country together and to infuse into the national psyche a need to give up their little-used rights in the hope to make our nation a little safer. The same scare tactics he used to win elections. He drones on and on about how America and the world would be a less safe place if we weren't killing Iraqis, and that we'd have to fight the terrorists at home if we weren't abroad. In our modern day emotive society this strategy (or strategery?) works, or had worked, up until last month's elections.
My point in this; to show that America was never nationalistic. If anything they were Statalistic (giving their allegiance to the state of their residence). This is shown in the fact that the founders created states with fully capable and independent governments and not provinces that were just a division of the federal government. These men believed that America was a place where imperialistic values would be non-existent. Where the people trying to make their lives better by working hard, thinking, inventing and using the free market would tie up so much of normal life that imperialistic colonization and the fighting of wars thousands of miles away for interests that are not our own would be avoided. They believed this expansion of power could be left to the European nations, the England, France and Spain of their time. However this recent, and current influx of nationalistic feeling has created an environment where giving up your rights, going to a foreign country to fight a people who did not ask for us to be there, nor did their leader do anything to warrant us being there, and dying would be considered honorable and heroic. I don't believe it anymore. I don't believe it's right for any American to go along with it anymore. Yes I know that we in the military are bound by the UCMJ and somehow don't fall under the Constitution (the very thing we're suppose to be defending) but sooner or later there is a decision that every American soldier, marine, airmen and seamen makes to allow themselves to be sent to a war that is against every fiber this country was founded on. I know that when April rolls around I will be thinking long and hard on that decision. Even though we in the military are just doing as we're told we still have the moral and ethical obligation to choose to do as we're told, or to say, "No, that isn't right." I believe that if more troopers like me and the professional military, the officers and commanders, start standing up and saying that they won't let themselves or their troops go to this illegal war people will start standing up and realizing what the heck is going on over there.
The sad fact of the matter is that we are not fighting terrorists in Iraq. We are fighting the Iraqi people who feel like a conquered and occupied people. Personally I have a hard time believing that if I was an Iraqi that I wouldn't be doing everything in my power to kill and maim as many Americans as possible. I know that the vast majority of Americans would not be happy with the Canadian government, or any other foreign government, liberating us from the clutches of George W. Bush, even though a large number of us would like that, and forcing us to accept their system of government. Would not millions of Americans rise up and fight back? Would you not rise up to protect and defend your house and your neighborhood if someone invaded your country? But we send thousands of troops to a foreign country to do just that. How is it moral to fight a people who are just trying to defend their homes and families? I think next time I go to Iraq perhaps I should wear a bright red coat and carry a Brown Bess instead of my digitalized utilities and M16.
Notice I never once used the word homeland in any of this. I have a secondary point I want to bring up now. Never once was the term homeland ever used to describe the country of America until Mr. Bush began the department of homeland security after the 9/11 attacks. Taking a 20th century history class will teach us that the most notable countries in the last century that referred to their country in this way were Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia. Hitler used the term fatherland to drum up support, nationalistic support, for his growing war machine. He used the nationalism he created in the minds of the Germans to justify the sacrifice of their livelihood to build the war machine to get back their power from the oppressive restrictions the English and French had put on them at Versailles. This is the same feeling that has been virulently infecting the American psyche in the last hundred years. This is the same feeling that consoles a mother after her son is killed in an attempt to prosecute an aggressor's war 10,000 miles away. It's also known as Patriotism these days, but I say, "No more." No more nationalistic inanity, no more passing it off as patriotism. Patriotism is learning, and educating oneself to understand what their country really stands for.
I heard a lot during the memorial service about how the dead Marine did so much good for others and how his helping others was like a little microcosm of America helping because we have the power to do so. Well if we have the power to help people why aren't we helping in Darfur where hundreds of thousands of people have died in the last 10 years. Saddam was convicted and sentenced to death for killing 143 Shiites who conspired to assassinate him. (I know all you "patriotic" Americans would be calling for the heads of anyone who conspired to assassinate supreme leader Bush). And yet we spend upwards of 1 trillion dollars and nearing 3,000 lives to help these Iraqis when they don't even want us there. Not to mention we don't have the legal justification to be there. I guess we should wait around for the omnipotent W Bush to decide who we should use our superpowerdom to help next. It's about time to throw him and the rest of the fascists out. Moreover it's about time to start educating Americans about their past and history, and letting them know that imperialistic leaders are not what the founders of this great country wanted.
Philip Martin has been a Marine for 3 years. He is in the infantry (a "grunt"), and spent 7 months in the al-Anbar province of Iraq. He went on more than 180 combat patrols in and outside of the city of Fallujah, where he was hit with 2 IEDs (luckily never injured) and was involved in a number of firefights. He is currently stationed in Iraq for his second deployment(April 2007-?). He is 21-years-old.
Seems the troops no longer believe the Bushco lies and dishonest spin.
Too bad the gutless chicken shit chicken hawks lack the testicular fortitude to sign up and give relief to troops like this....
But the are gutless big mouth re-pubies with NO backbone at all.
GREAT post Clif!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteStock Market Meltdown
ReplyDeleteBy Mike Whitney
“Whatever is going to happen, will happen...just don’t let it happen to you.” Doug Casey, Casey Research
It’s a Bloodbath. That’s the only way to describe it.
On Friday the Dow Jones took a 280 point nosedive on fears that that losses in the subprime market will spill over into the broader economy and cut into GDP. Ever since the two Bears Sterns hedge funds folded a couple weeks ago the stock market has been writhing like a drug-addict in a detox-cell. Yesterday’s sell-off added to last week’s plunge that wiped out $2.1 trillion in value from global equity markets. New York investment guru, Jim Rogers said that the real market is “one of the biggest bubbles we’ve ever had in credit” and that the subprime rout “has a long way to go.”
We are now beginning to feel the first tremors from the massive credit expansion which began 6 years ago at the Federal Reserve. The trillions of dollars which were pumped into the global economy via low interest rates and increased money supply have raised the nominal value of equities, but at great cost. Now, stocks will fall sharply and businesses will fail as volatility increases and liquidity dries up. Stagnant wages and a declining dollar have thrust the country into a deflationary cycle which has---up to this point---been concealed by Greenspan’s “cheap money” policy. Those days are over. Economic fundamentals are taking hold. The market swings will get deeper and more violent as the Fed’s massive credit bubble continues to unwind. Trillions of dollars of market value will vanish overnight. The stock market will go into a long-term swoon.
Ludwig von Mises summed it up like this:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." (Thanks to the Daily Reckoning)
It doesn’t matter if the “underlying economy is strong”. (as Henry Paulson likes to say) That’s nonsense. Trillions of dollars of over-leveraged bets are quickly unraveling which has the same effect as taking a wrecking ball down Wall Street.
This week a third Bear Stearns fund shuttered its doors and stopped investors from withdrawing their money. Bear’s CFO, Sam Molinaro, described the chaos in the credit market as the worst he'd seen in 22 years. At the same time, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp---the 10th-largest mortgage lender in the U.S. ---said that “it can't pay its creditors, potentially becoming the first big lender outside the subprime mortgage business to go bust”. (MarketWatch)
This is big news, mainly because AHM is the first major lender OUTSIDE THE SUBPRIME MORTGAGE BUSINESS to go belly-up. The contagion has now spread through the entire mortgage industry—Alt-A, piggyback, Interest Only, ARMs, Prime, 2-28, Jumbo,—the whole range of loans is now vulnerable. That means we should expect far more than the estimated 2 million foreclosures by year-end. This is bound to wreak havoc in the secondary market where $1.7 trillion in toxic CDOs have already become the scourge of Wall Street.
Some of the country’s biggest banks are going to take a beating when AHM goes under. Bank of America is on the hook for $1.3 billion, Bear Stearns $2 billion and Barclay’s $1 billion. All told, AHM’s mortgage underwriting amounted to a whopping $9.7 billion. (Apparently, AHM could not even come up with a measly $300 million to cover existing deals on mortgages! Where’d all the money go?) This shows the downstream effects of these massive mortgage-lending meltdowns. Everybody gets hurt.
AHM’s stock plunged 90% IN ONE DAY. Jittery investors are now bailing out at the first sign of a downturn. Wall Street has become a bundle of nerves and the problems in housing have only just begun. Inventory is still building, prices are falling and defaults are steadily rising; all the necessary components for a full-blown catastrophe.
AHM warned investors on Tuesday that it had stopped buying loans from a variety of originators. 2 other mortgage lenders announced they were going out of business just hours later. The lending climate has gotten worse by the day. Up to now, the banks have had no trouble bundling mortgages off to Wall Street through collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). Now everything has changed. The banks are buried under MORE THAN $300 BILLION worth of loans that no one wants. The mortgage CDO is going the way of the Dodo. Unfortunately, it has attached itself to many of the investment banks on its way to extinction.
And it’s not just the banks that are in for a drubbing. The insurance companies and pension funds are loaded with trillions of dollars in “toxic waste” CDOs. That shoe hasn’t even dropped yet. By the end of 2008, the economy will be on life-support and Wall Street will look like the Baghdad morgue. American biggest financials will be splayed out on a marble slab peering blankly into the ether.
Think I’m kidding?
Already the big investment banks are taking on water. Merrill Lynch has fallen 22% since the start of the year. Citigroup is down 16% and Lehman Bros Holdings has dropped 22%. According to Bloomberg News: “The highest level of defaults in 10 years on subprime mortgages and a $33 billion pileup of unsold bonds and loans for funding acquisitions are driving investors away from debt of the New York-based securities firms. Concerns about credit quality may get worse because banks promised to provide $300 billion in debt for leveraged buyouts announced this year……Bear Stearns Cos., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., are as good as junk.”
That’s right---“junk”.
We’ve never seen an economic tsunami like this before. The dollar is falling, employment and manufacturing are weakening, new car sales are off for the seventh straight month, consumer spending is down to a paltry 1.3%, and oil is hitting new highs every day as it marches inexorably towards a $100 per barrel.
So, where’s the silver lining?
Apart from the 2 million-plus foreclosures, and the 80 or so mortgage lenders who have filed for bankruptcy; a growing number of investment firms are feeling the pinch from the turmoil in real estate. Bear Stearns; Basis Capital Funds Management, Absolute Capital, IKB Deutsche Industrial Bank AG, Commerzbank AG, Sowood Capital Management, C-Bass, UBS-AG, Caliber Global Investment and Nomura Holdings Inc.—are all either going under or have taken a major hit from the troubles in subprime. The list will only grow as the weeks go by. (Check out these graphs to understand what’s really going on in the housing market. http://www.recharts.com/reports/CSHB031207/CSHB031207.html?ref=patrick.net
The problems in real estate are not limited to residential housing either. The credit crunch is now affecting deals in commercial real estate, too. Low-cost, low-documentation, “covenant lite” loans are a thing of the past. Banks are finally stiffening their lending requirements even though the horse has already left the barn. Commercial mortgage-backed securities are now nearly as tainted as their evil-twin, residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). There’s no market for these turkeys. The banks are returning to traditional lending standards and simply don’t want to take the risk anymore.
Bataan Death March?
Leveraged Buy Outs (LBOs) have been a dependable source of market liquidity. But, not any more. In the last quarter, there was $57 billion in LBOs. In the first month of this quarter that amount dropped to less than $2 billion. That’s quite a tumble. The Wall Street Journal’s Dennis Berman summed it up like this: “the Street is scrambling to finance some $220 billion of leveraged buy out deals” (but) the “mood has gone from Nantucket holiday to Bataan Death March”.
Berman nailed it. The investment banks took great pleasure in their profligate lending; raking in the lavish fees for joining mega-corporations together in conjugal bliss. Then someone took the punch bowl. Now the banking giants are scratching their heads-- wondering how they can unload $220B of toxic-debt onto wary investors. It won’t be easy.
“The banks and brokers are in the bull’s eye,” said Kevin Murphy. “There’s article after article not only on subprime, but also banks sitting on leveraged buy out loans.” (WSJ) Credit protection on bank debt is soaring just as investor confidence is on the wane. In fact, the VIX index (The “fear gauge”) which measures market volatility--- has surged 60% in the last week alone. The increased volatility means that more and more investors will probably ditch the stock market altogether and head for the safety of US Treasuries.
But, that just presents a different set of problems. After all, what good are US Treasuries if the dollar continues to plummet? No one will put up with 5% or 6% return on their investment if the dollar keeps sliding 10% to 15% per year. It would be wiser to one’s move money into foreign investments where the currency is stable.
And, that is (presumably) why Treasury Secretary Paulson is in China today---to sweet talk our Communist bankers into buying more USTs to prop up the flaccid greenback. (Note: The Chinese are currently holding $103 billion in toxic US-CDOs---and are not at all happy about their decline in value.) If the Chinese don’t purchase more US debt, then panicky US investors will start moving their dollars into gold, foreign currencies and German state bonds as a hedge against inflation. This will further accelerate the flight of foreign capital from American markets and trigger a massive blow-off in the stock and bond markets. In fact, this process is already underway. (although it has been largely concealed in the business media) In truth, the big money has been fleeing the US for the last 3 years. What passes as “trading” on Wall Street today is just the endless expansion of credit via newer and more opaque debt-instruments. It’s all a sham. America ’s hard assets are being sold off to at an unprecedented pace.
Credit Crunch: Whose ox gets gored?
When money gets tight; anyone who is “over-extended” is apt to get hurt. That means that the maxed-out hedge fund industry will continue to get clobbered. At current debt-to-investment ratios, the stock market only has to fall about 10% for the average hedge fund to take a 50% scalping. That’s more than enough to put most funds underwater for good. The carnage in Hedgistan will likely persist into the foreseeable future.
That might not bother the robber-baron fund-managers who’ve already extracted their 2% “pound of flesh” on the front end. But it’s a rotten deal for the working stiff who could lose his entire retirement in a matter of hours. He didn’t realize that his investment portfolio was a crap-shoot. He probably thought there were laws to protect him from Wall Street scam-artists and flim-flam men.
It’ll be even worse for the banks than the hedge funds. In fact, the banks are more exposed than anytime in history. Consider this: the banks are presently holding a half trillion dollars in debt (LBOs and CDOs) FOR WHICH THERE IS NO MARKET. Most of this debt will be dramatically downgraded since the CDOs have no true “mark to market” value. It’s clear now that the rating agencies were in bed with the investment banks. In fact, Joshua Rosner admitted as much in a recent New York Times editorial:
“The original models used to rate collateralized debt obligations were created in close cooperation with the investment banks that designed the securities”….(The agencies) “actively advise issuers of these securities on how to achieve their desired ratings” (Joshua Rosner “Stopping the Subprime Crisis” NY Times)
Pretty cozy deal, eh? Just tell the agency the rating you want and they tell you how to get it.
Now we know why $1.7 trillion in CDOs are headed for the landfill.
The downgrading of CDOs has just begun and Wall Street is already in a frenzy over what the effects will be. Once the ratings fall, the banks will be required to increase their reserves to cover the additional risk. For example, “As a recent issue of Grant’s explains, global commercial banks are only required to set aside 56 cents ($0.56) for every $100 worth of triple-A rated securities they hold. That’s roughly 178 to 1 ratio. Drop that down to double-B minus, and the requirement skyrockets to $52 per $100 worth of securities held---a margin increase of more than 9,000%”.
“56 cents ($0.56) for every $100 worth of triple-A rated securities”?!? Are you kidding me?
As Mugambo Guru says, "That is 1/18th of the 10% stock margin equity required in 1929"!! (Mugambo Guru; kitco.com)
The high-risk game the banks have been playing---of “securitizing” the loans of applicants with shaky credit---is falling apart fast. There’s no market for chopped up loans from over-extended homeowners with bad credit. The banks don’t have the reserves to cover the loans they have on the books and the CDOs have no fixed market value. End of story. The music has stopped and the banks can’t find a chair.
The public doesn’t know anything about this looming disaster yet. How will people react when they drive up to their local bank and see plywood sheeting covering the windows?
This will happen. There will be bank failures.
The derivatives market is another area of concern. The notional value of these relatively untested instruments has risen to $286 trillion in 2006---up from a meager $63 trillion in 2000. No one has any idea of how these new “swaps and options” will hold up in a slumping market or under the stress of increased volatility. Could they bring down the whole market?
That depends on whether they’re backed-up by sufficient collateral to meet their obligations. But that seems unlikely. We’ve seen over and over again that nothing in this new deregulated market is “as it seems”. It’s all stardust mixed with snake oil. What the Wall Street hucksters call the “new financial architecture of investment” is really nothing more than one overleveraged debt-bomb stacked atop another. Ironically, many of these same swindles were used in the run-up to the Great Depression. Now they’ve resurfaced to do even more damage. When the crooks and con-men write the laws (deregulation) and run the system; the results are usually the same. The little guy always gets screwed. That much is certain.
At present, the stock market is running on fumes. Another 4 to 6 months of wild gyrations and it’ll be over. The NASDAQ plunged 75% after the dot.com bust. How low will it go this time?
Keep an eye on the yen. The ongoing troubles in subprime and hedge funds are pushing the yen upwards which will unwind trillions of dollars of low interest, short term loans which are fueling the rise in stock prices. If the yen strengthens, traders will be forced to sell their positions and the market will tank. It’s just that simple. The Dow Jones will be a Dead Duck.
So far, Japan ’s monetary manipulations have been a real boon for Wall Street--enriching the investment bankers, the big-time traders and the hedge fund managers. They’re the one’s who can take advantage of the interest rate spread and then maximize their leverage in the stock market. It works like a charm in an up-market, but things can unravel quickly when the market retreats or starts to zigzag erratically. The recent rumblings suggest that the volatility will continue which will push the yen upwards and cut off the flow of cheap credit to the stock market. When that happens, the end is nigh.
The American People: “We’re not a dumb as you think”
It’s always refreshing to find out that the majority of Americans seem to have a grasp of what is really going on behind the fake headlines. For example, The Wall Street Journal/NBC conducted a poll this week which shows that two-thirds of Americans believe that “the economy is either in a recession now or will be in the next year.” That matches up pretty well with the 71% of Americans who now feel the Iraq War “was a mistake”. Americans are clearly downbeat in their outlook on the economy and haven’t been taken in by the daily infusions of happy talk about “low inflation” and “sustained growth” from toothy TV pundits. In fact, the mood of the country regarding the economy is downright gloomy. “Only 19% of Americans say things in the nation are headed in the right direction, while 67% say the country is off on the wrong track”. Iraq , of course, is the number one reason for the pessimism, but the dissatisfaction runs much deeper than just that.
“Only 16% expressed substantial confidence in the financial industry”—“18% in the energy or pharmaceutical industries”—“17% in large corporations and 11% in health-insurance companies”. Only 18% of the people have confidence in the corporate media and only 16% in the federal government.
These are encouraging numbers. They show that the vast majority of people have lost confidence in the system and its institutions. They also illustrate the limits of propaganda. People are not as easily indoctrinated as many believe. Eventually the “bewildered herd” catches on and sees through the lies and deception.
The American people know intuitively that something is fundamentally wrong with the economy. They just don’t know the details or the extent of the damage. Decades of neoliberal policies have inflated the currency, broadened the wealth gap, and destroyed manufacturing. Workers can no longer buy the things they produce because wages have stagnated through a stealth campaign of inflation which originated at the Federal Reserve. When wages shrink, prices eventually fall from overcapacity and the economy slips into a deflationary cycle. This downward spiral ultimately ends in depression. So far, that's been avoided because of the Fed’s massive expansion of cheap credit. But that won’t last.
Economic policy is not “accidental”. The Fed’s policies were designed to create a crisis, and that crisis was intended to coincide with the activation of a nation-wide police-state. It is foolish to think that Greenspan or his fellows did not grasp the implications of the system they put in place. These are very smart men and very shrewd economists. They knew exactly what they were doing. They all understand the effects of low interest rates and expanded money supply. And, they’re also all familiar with Ludwig von Mises, who said:
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion.”
A crash is unavoidable because the policies were designed to create a crash. It’s that simple.
The Federal Reserve is a central player in a carefully considered plan to shift the nation’s wealth from one class to another. And they have succeeded. Nearly 4 million American jobs have been sent overseas, the country has increased the national debt by $3 trillion dollars, and foreign investors own $4.5 trillion in US dollar-backed assets. While the Fed has been carrying out its economic strategy; the Bush administration has deployed the military around the world to conduct a global resource war. These are two wheels on the same axel. The goal is to maintain control of the global economic system by seizing the remaining energy resources in Eurasia and the Middle East and by integrating potential rivals into the American-led economic model under the direction of the Central Bank. All of the leading candidates—Democrat and Republican---belong to secretive organizations which ascribe to the same basic principles of global rule (new world order) and permanent US hegemony. There’s no quantifiable difference between any of them.
The impending economic crisis is part of a much broader scheme to remake the political system from the ground-up so it better meets the needs of ruling elite. After the crash, public assets will be sold at firesale prices to the highest bidder. Public lands will be auctioned off. Basic services will be privatized. Democracy will be shelved.
The unsupervised expansion of credit through interest rate manipulation is the fast-track to tyranny. Thomas Jefferson fully understood this. He said:
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of our currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
We are now in the first phase of Greenspan’s Depression. The stock market is headed for the doldrums and the economy will quickly follow. Many more mortgage lenders, hedge funds and investment banks will be carried out feet first.
As the disaster unfolds, we should try to focus on where the troubles began and keep in mind Jefferson ’s injunction:
“The issuing of power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.”
Rep. Ron Paul is the only presidential candidate who supports abolishing the Federal Reserve.
Of course gay-dalf and dolty boy will say everything is fine, the deluded fooles they are.......
ReplyDeleteHere is a thread of coments from
ReplyDelete"The Oil Drum"
which I found interesting;
Original link
records on August 5, 2007 - 9:26am | Permalink | Subthread ^
Any offerings as to what to make of the Whitehouse declaration of a state of emergency with respect to Syrian interference in Lebanon:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070802-1.html
I, GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States of America, determine that the actions of certain persons to undermine Lebanon's legitimate and democratically elected government or democratic institutions, to contribute to the deliberate breakdown in the rule of law in Lebanon, including through politically motivated violence and intimidation, to reassert Syrian control or contribute to Syrian interference in Lebanon, or to infringe upon or undermine Lebanese sovereignty contribute to political and economic instability in that country and the region and constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States, and I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with that threat.
No mention on any MSM sites
Records
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Cid Yama on August 5, 2007 - 9:48am | Permalink | Subthread ^
There are currently elections going on in Lebanon. I found this. I will look for more.
http://www.jnewswire.com/article/2098
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=406346
http://www.thestar.com/article/243111
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records on August 5, 2007 - 10:08am | Permalink | Subthread ^
A decleration of emergency seems a dramatic pre-emptive step, presumably they have 'good intelligence' and are trying to suppress Syrian planned hostile actions, by freezing assets.
Records
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davebygolly on August 5, 2007 - 11:06am | Permalink | Subthread ^
Lots of this kind of stuff appears in blogs and never appears in the MSM. There was another such declaration on July 17 that threatens to freeze assets of those interfering with the Iraq war effort. Maybe someone can find and post.
There is no reason to presume hostile Syrian intent any more than there is to presume hostile Iranian intent or hostile X-ian intent where X is anything other than the US gov't. It has been and is on a rampage. Not that China and Russia are lambs -- but they haven't, so far, been doing the "pre-emptive" military thing.
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oilmanbob on August 5, 2007 - 11:47am | Permalink | Subthread ^
davebygolly, read the Executive Order dated July 17th on the Whitehouse website. You can find it by googling Bush, executive order. Don't believe it unless you've read it yourself. I read it myself, and I believe it, but if you have another interpretation, tell us.
Bob Ebersole
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bioprospector on August 5, 2007 - 3:40pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
Here's the link to the press release: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/07/20070717-3.html
An interesting analysis by Prof Michel Chossudovsky here, sees it in terms of the criminalization of dissent - and no response from the House? WTF?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?articleId=6377
There's an argument for legitimizing the EO in terms of its application to acts of "violence" (or threat thereof), rather than opposition per se. But what is really interesting is how the EO seems to apply to those who work for or with agents who may *later* be deemed to have used violence to upset the Iraq plan. Read it closely, folks, this is the future (present).
Incidentally, Chossudovsky sees the EO (and others like it. surely) tied in with NSPD 51, which we should all be aware of by now:
"In May 2007, Bush issued a major presidential National Security Directive (National Security and Homeland Security Presidential Directive NSPD 51/HSPD 20), which would suspend constitutional government and instate broad dictatorial powers under martial law in the case of a "Catastrophic Emergency" (e.g. Second 9/11 terrorist attack)."
Like they say, by the time you hear the gunshot, you're already hit.
sm
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Gilgamesh on August 5, 2007 - 12:12pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
so now dissent about 2 countries is effectivley stopped
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Dragonfly41 on August 5, 2007 - 8:33pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
Why doesn't Bush just pass an Executive Order that says "Anyone that does not think what I think, is going to be hunted down and jailed/tortured"? It would save him time instead of passing all these "little" Executive Orders.
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TrueKaiser on August 5, 2007 - 3:06pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
you would think that wouldn't you? but no thats not what they will use it for. Crushing all dissent by using this would be too obvious of a power grab and would be extremely counter-productive. The military industrial complex as well as the current handlers of bush learned this lesson during Vietnam. No what they are doing is slightly more complex but very simple to understand. they will let small scale dissent flourish under their watchful eye of course. though when a group of these dissenters start to make traction thats when they act, with this order and the one about iraq they can effectively shut these operations down. When doing so they will of course not state the real reason, they will say they were terrorist or some such thing but the effect is the same.
They don't even have to hide this any further then a simple lie as to the reason of any of the required raids. Anyone else in the dissenting crowd would be even further marginalized by both factions in their own group and the public at large if they tried to tell the truth. Mainly because it is hard to believe a so called free and democratic country could practice tactics, the same kind of tactics used by nations many of us were taught as we grew up were evil. Remember only small lies need protection, the big ones protect themselves.
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Gilgamesh on August 5, 2007 - 6:02pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
so breed dissent with the system but prevent the people from expressing it to their elected officials!
hooray fascism.
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GLT149 on August 5, 2007 - 6:16pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
Speculation Alert: The Republicans are sure to lose the White House in 2008, unless they employ extraordinary means to win the election. One of those tactics may be the use of this EO, in combinations with others, to pick off one or more of the prominent democratic grassroots organizations such as moveon.org or kos. Their assets would be taken or frozen and the MSM would brand them supporters of terrorism. By branding them terrorist supporters, any presidential candidate would also be tainted and excoriated by most of the MSM as well. Such a tactic could have the effect of swaying some independent voters to the Republicans who would otherwise have voted Democratic.
This seems more logical to me than the theory that a catastrophe will be engineered to justify imposition of martial law under these EOs. Martial law would be too disruptive to business interests. They've got enough on their hands with the credit and mortgage debacle.
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Greg Hunter on August 5, 2007 - 7:25pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
I agree with the slow erosion as I suspect The Patriot Act powers will be used to track down criminals that the public will not care that their rights were violated. I am wondering if the original Pedophile and high level drug prosecutions will be used to get law enforcement and the public to accept this type of invasion of privacy.
Looks like middle class America thinks Bushco will try something also ..... that's not very encouraging at all.
Thats EXACTLY what i'm saying Clif................"TrueKaiser on August 5, 2007 - 3:06pm | Permalink | Subthread ^
ReplyDeleteyou would think that wouldn't you? but no thats not what they will use it for. Crushing all dissent by using this would be too obvious of a power grab and would be extremely counter-productive. The military industrial complex as well as the current handlers of bush learned this lesson during Vietnam. No what they are doing is slightly more complex but very simple to understand. they will let small scale dissent flourish under their watchful eye of course. though when a group of these dissenters start to make traction thats when they act, with this order and the one about iraq they can effectively shut these operations down. When doing so they will of course not state the real reason, they will say they were terrorist or some such thing but the effect is the same.
They don't even have to hide this any further then a simple lie as to the reason of any of the required raids. Anyone else in the dissenting crowd would be even further marginalized by both factions in their own group and the public at large if they tried to tell the truth. Mainly because it is hard to believe a so called free and democratic country could practice tactics, the same kind of tactics used by nations many of us were taught as we grew up were evil. Remember only small lies need protection, the big ones protect themselves.
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This post is right on the money!
Mike we live in very interesting times, but then again so did the residents of Munich circa 1934-1945
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it Bush exposed his hand and everyone elso just conceded and folded to him...........he is unpposed and unchallenged by a Democratic majority in Congresss whose mission was to oppose him and put democracy, justice and the rule of law above all else.
ReplyDeleteHeaven forbid our Congress should sacrifice a tiny bit of their vacation for a principle -- saving the Republic. And what do they need a vacation from? Are they too tired from all that schmoozing with lobbyists and being bribed by their corporate "donors"? Rough life.
ReplyDeleteWho Hijacked Our Country
I'm intrigued by the idea of a Constitutional amendment allowing for the removal of the President by vote but there is no way of that happening, or happening in time, so why not try this from another direction ... the 25th Amendment.
ReplyDeleteThe 25th amendment allows for the involuntary removal of President if he is incapacitated. It is possible for such a declaration to be made even if the President is fully able and conscious, should the majority of his officers find grounds other than medical disability, such as insanity, emotional instability, or conflict of interests, affecting national security.
There is a stronger movement out there to impeach Cheney than there is to impeach Bush. If Cheney were to be impeached first and while that were going on, we start a petition drive ...
I forgot to include in that post that the amendment specifies it could be Congress that declares the President unfit or another body as allowed by law -- another body such as the American people.
ReplyDeleteYour right, Cheney would have to be removed first, as he is MORE dangerous than Bush.
ReplyDeleteIf you impeached Bush first, Cheney would declare martial law, and use it to side step congress and the 2008 election.
ReplyDeleteCheney is the person who has always pushed the most destructive parts of the illegal moves by Bush .... if you impeached Bush you would hand the entire government to Cheney with nobody to stop him.
I also agree with two crows about the brownshirts and confiscating the assets. It's another way for revenue to keep this war business going.
ReplyDeleteIt seems almost certain now that the american economy is going to collapse.
ReplyDeleteThe historians might like to examine the fate of Rome, an empire that had come to rely upon military might to ensure the flow of resources and wealth to the "elites".
When the whole illusion began to crumble, one of the major factors was the thieving and destruction plied by the very mercenaries that had been hired and trained by Rome.
Men whose only means of support had been to rape, rob and pillage on behalf of the government.
When, not if, the u.s. evacuates from the M.E., there will be hundreds of thousands of mercenaries (contractors)returning home.
There will also be hundreds of thousands of unemployed "defense" workers.
Add in a few million homeless families, a million or two angry veterans, a crumbling infrastructure, and it doesn`t look like America will be a happy place.
Peace.
Here's my take on this, Larry.
ReplyDeleteWhat a tragedy we've become.
hi, Lydia--
ReplyDeletethanks for dropping by my blog--
xxx
I just had a chilling thought:
what if Pelosi removed impeachment from the table in order to assure a dem landslide in 2008?
these days, I wouldn't put ANYTHING past the politicos of both sides.
if Bush&Cheney are out of office, given the short memories of the American people, some folks might actually vote republican.
on the other hand, if they're up there, front and center taking away our liberties till the last hurrah, the democrats' will be assured of victory.
and, meanwhile, they'll have all those lovely precedents: a diminished Constitution, the right to eavesdrop, the right to torture, the right to seize the assets of anyone who disagrees with them, etc.
have YOU ever known anyone-- politician or otherwise --who has had power given to them on a silver platter who then turned around and handed it back?
well, Geo Washington did it -- but I think we can safely say there're no Washingtons in today's government.
Today, right now from 8-9 AM Basham and Cornell discuss the new law Bush signed giving himself unlimited spying powers and condoning all the laws he broke the past 6 years.
ReplyDeleteTune in to www.bashamandcornell.com or KLAV 1230 live in Los Vegas.
On the internet click on "Listen Live"
I seriously discount the kind of manipulation that Pelosi would take impeachment off the table to "ensure a democratic landslide" next year.
ReplyDeleteBush would be an issue, whether he was impeached or not. Without impeachment, in fact, he'd be LESS of an issue, since with impeachment, you have concrete charges backed up by evidence presented as if it was a criminal case, and people would mull that over.
Without impeachment, it's all rumour and innuendo and can be painted as partisan posturing.
So her taking impeachment off the table for political gain under this scenario is somewhat unlikely.
We are on the air, LIVE, RIGHT NOW from 8-9 AM PST Basham and Cornell discuss the new law Bush signed giving himself unlimited spying powers and condoning all the laws he broke the past 6 years.
ReplyDeleteTune in to www.bashamandcornell.com or KLAV 1230 live in Los Vegas.
On the internet click on "Listen Live"
I agree with Carl, if Bush WERE impeached and his crimes were brought out into the light and made concrete rather than just claims of partisan witchunts it would do far more damage to Bush and the repug party than doing nothing, it would probably destroy the repug party for at least a generation.
ReplyDeleteI can only conclude that the Democrats are either being blackmailed by Bush and co, or are truly afraid that if they push his back to the wall Bush will declare martial law and have them executed.
have you ever noticed that anytime people speak out asgainst Bush or take a position to vote against him in an important vote many change their position and just fall into line with him and that goes for BOTH repugs and Democrats so I have to think they are either being blackmailed or fear for their lives.
Lydia, I just caught the last 1/2 of your show, and it was great as usual...........please hurry up and get it in the archives i'm really anxious to go back and listen to the whole thing.
ReplyDeleteExcellent post, Larry. We are definitely going down a slippery slope.
ReplyDeleteThe Democratically-controlled House, with one leg already out of town and ready to start their summer vacation, approved with modest changes, President Bush’s record Pentagon budget early Sunday.
ReplyDeleteThe House’s $459.6 billion defense budget, approved on a 395-13 vote, would add money for equipment for the National Guard and Reserve, provide for 12,000 additional soldiers and Marines, and increase spending for defense health care and military housing.
Call it another victory for George Bush courtesy of the House that Nancy Pelosi built.
Congress is useless..........last Congress was a donothing rubberstamping repug Congress, this Congress is a spineless do a little more than nothing Democratic Congress.
ReplyDeleteBush’s 'Probably Not a Terrorist Surveillance Program' by Thomas R. Eddlem by Tom R. Eddlem President George Bush and senior members of his administration call it their "Terrorist Surveillance Program," but the NSA warrantless wiretapping program on American citizens is more accurately titled the "Probably Not a Terrorist Surveillance Program." Senior Bush Administration officials have spent the past couple of weeks defending the National Security Agency’s program of spying on the private telephone calls of American citizens without seeking the constitutionally-required court warrant using talking points such as Bush uttered during his "State of the Union" address: "If there are people inside our country who are talking with al Qaeda, we want to know about it." I’ve got no problem with tapping the calls of people who are al Qaeda, and Congress authorized the President to do this under the 1978 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). All that Bush has to do is follow the same Constitution he swore an oath to "preserve, protect and defend" by seeking a warrant. There’s even an emergency provision in FISA that lets the President tap a phone call before getting a warrant, which is similar to the common law doctrine of "hot pursuit" with regard to warrants. If all the President has to do is get a warrant within 72 hours after conducting the phone tap, it doesn’t slow down the NSA one bit to get the warrant. Unless, of course, the NSA request for a warrant would be denied by the courts. And that’s where it becomes interesting. The constitutional standard for issuing a search warrant is defined by the fourth amendment, which states: "The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized." The constitutional standard for issuing a warrant for a particular search involves "probable cause, supported by an oath or affirmation." If NSA searches don’t involve probable cause, then they would be denied a warrant. And if they are tapping American’s phone calls under this warrantless program, they are tapping the phones of people who, by definition, are probably not terrorists. Thus, the most appropriate name for the program is the "Probably Not a Terrorist Surveillance Program." Note that the President no longer talks about warrants, though he told the American people many times that "Law enforcement officers need a federal judge's permission to wiretap a foreign terrorist's phone, or to track his calls, or to search his property." The word "warrant" is no longer in the administration’s vocabulary when discussing the NSA program. Bush claims the constitutional power to conduct warrantless searches flows from his "commander-in-chief" powers under Article Two of the U.S. constitution. But even if Article Two gave him that power, the Fourth Amendment (which amended the Constitution) has taken any claim of legitimacy from that power. Interestingly, Bush has campaigned vigorously for a renewal of the Patriot Act, which his own website claims requires a warrant for a wiretap. If he already possesses the "constitutional power" to conduct warrantless wiretaps, as he claims, why would he need Congress to give him the power to obtain wiretaps through a warrant? Again, I am reduced to concluding that Bush’s warrantless program would not meet the Constitutional threshold for obtaining a search warrant: "probable cause, supported by oath or affirmation." And I am led to conclude that he is tapping the phones of Americans, every one of whom are – by definition – probably law-abiding citizens. The "Probably Not a Terrorist Surveillance Program" is the cornerstone of what is wrong with Bush’s so-called "War on Terrorism." The fact that we are spending extraordinary resources on an unconstitutional spying program that by definition is looking for people who are probably not terrorists speaks for itself. But it is consistent with Bush’s past statements that he doesn’t intend to focus upon the actual people who brought the 9/11 terror to the United States, such as Osama bin Ladin. In a March 13, 2002 press conference, Bush explained that "… the idea of focusing on one person is – really indicates to me people don't understand the scope of the mission. Terror is bigger than one person. And he's just – he's a person who's now been marginalized. His network, his host government has been destroyed. He's the ultimate parasite who found weakness, exploited it, and met his match. He is – as I mentioned in my speech, I do mention the fact that this is a fellow who is willing to commit youngsters to their death and he, himself, tries to hide – if, in fact, he's hiding at all. So I don't know where he is. You know, I just don't spend that much time on him, Kelly, to be honest with you." Bush is no longer interested in actually bringing the real killers in 9/11 to justice. Osama bin Ladin, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, remains a free man four and a half years after the event. But Osama remains a side issue to Bush’s larger "war," where we occupy Iraq, bomb Pakistan and threaten Iran. And this is a war that Bush and his aides concede will last a generation. Bush’s so-called "War on Terrorism" is a phony war, and not just because Congress – the only body authorized by the U.S. constitution to declare war – didn’t declare it. Presidents are always declaring "war" when they want to appear to be making progress on a public concern without actually doing anything. This explains the phony wars on drugs, crime, and poverty. Whenever a politician starts talking about wars, look out for your disappearing freedoms. American’s should inform their congressman that Bush’s "War on Terror" is not really a war on terror and his "Terrorist Surveillance program is more accurately called the "Probably Not a Terrorist Surveillance Program." February 3, 2006 Thomas R. Eddlem [send him mail] is a native of the Boston area of Massachusetts and a graduate of Stonehill College. He is a radio talk show host in Southeastern Massachusetts and is a frequent contributor to The New American magazine.
ReplyDeleteMR. Scott McCLELLAN: "What I'm not going to do is get into discussing operational activities from this podium. General Hayden made it very clear that the existence of this program is harmful to our national security" behold that freudian slip moment of honesty where he forgot the spin, Scott Mcclellan said that Hayden said that the existence of the warrantless domestic spy program is harmful to our national security.
ReplyDeleteMR. Scott McCLELLAN: I think that the frivolous lawsuits that you reference do nothing to help enhance civil liberties or protect the American people. And that's what those are. In terms of this authorization, again, it is a vital tool and it is limited and it is aimed at what you just referred to: communications -- international communications involving known al Qaeda members or people affiliated with al Qaeda -- or people that are affiliated with al Qaeda-related organizations." There's the BIG LIE, the WHOPPER, McClellan said the warrantless spying ONLY INVOLVES KNOWN AL QAEDA MEMBERS OR THOSE AFFILATED WITH THEM, that is a huge blantant treasonous lie, he is spying on EVERY SINGLE AMERICAN, NOT JUST KNOWN AL QAEDA MEMBERS.
ReplyDeleteMR. Scott McCLELLAN: -- the President spoke to the American people after September 11th and said that as time goes on, people are going to -- some people may tend to forget. He will not forget what happened on September 11th, when some 3,000 lives were lost here. We know that al Qaeda and other terrorists want to inflict even greater harm on the American people, and that's why we must continue acting on all fronts and doing everything we can to connect the dots, to gather the intelligence to connect the dots. If you're not talking to a known al Qaeda member or a member of an affiliated organization, you don't have to worry about this. The head of the NSA, or former head of the NSA talked about that in a briefing to reporters, about how limited this is and what it is aimed at. And that is the authorization that the President made after the attacks of September 11th." HMMMMM Bush said he wont forget, sure seems like he forgot about Osama Bin Forgotten to me, he even said he doesnt think about him, he then disbanded the CIA unit whose job it was to capture the guy who brutally murdered 3000 of our citizens. He then lied abour the scope of the surveilance and deliberately tried to mislead the American People by saying if you are not talking to a known Al Qaeda member you need not be concerned for your privacy, when the truth is our half wit Foole in Chief looked the American People in the eye and lied to them, he is spying on every single one of our citizens, 300,000,000 people and there is no way in hell that can have any inpact on keeping us safe, it is a disgusting waste of resources and invasion of privacy and that corrupt incompetent foole should be impeached and tried for treason for his blantant illegal defiance of the constitition, and invasion of privacy for political gain.
ReplyDelete"Those who would give up Essential Liberty to purchase a little Temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."- attributed to Benjamin Franklin.
ReplyDeleteCarl said...
ReplyDeleteMike,
The CPI has, from time to time, been measured in negative percentages. it's called "recession"."
LOL, I realize what a recession is Carl and I think fairly soon a lot of other people will too..............however my point was a simple one, namely if the core rate of inflation is too difficult to measure accurately on a monthyly basis then maybe we shouldnt measure it on a monthly basis............I know what your trying to say here.....BUT I dont think leaving out two or three items that account for 80% or more of many peoples budget produces accurate numbers, and if the numbers are not accurate and two difficult to measure then why try, we can look at the individual components and make our own estimates......and call it an estimate rather than a legitimate statistic.
This isnt just coming from me,just about every economist and/or financial person I respect says inflation is vastly understated........like i said probably 90% of my income goes toward food, energy and housing and those have all inflated probably around 20% a year on average so to say inflation is 2%-3% a year is not only insulting its riddiculous.
Peak Oil is Here
ReplyDeleteThe world’s most respected journal of economics has now officially acknowledged the advent of peak oil, validating (finally!) what we’ve been saying for years.
In a July 19 article, the venerable Economist cut straight to the point:
“The world is consuming more oil than it is producing.” --The Economist, July 14-20 print edition.
[The definition of peak oil, the ability of the producers to meet the demands of the consumers has PEAKED, which means much higher prices as demand grows while supply can not]
...Some observers such as Kenneth S. Deffeyes, Matthew Simmons, and James Howard Kunstler believe that because of the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on inexpensive oil, the post-peak production decline and possible resulting severe price increases will have negative implications for the global economy.
Talk about understatement!
Enjoy the next couple of years cause things are gonna get much worse about 2010-2012 time frame ..... that is where the peak really starts to affect both prices and the economies of this planet.
Things like this will become much more common place;
ReplyDeleteBP will no longer offer its fuel in North Dakota
Mike Rud, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Marketers Association, said it's a "huge loss" for the state.
"It's a sign of the times," Rud said. "If you don't have supply, you can't do your job. I think they saw the writing on the wall"
Don't have the fuel, I thought some gutless chicken hawks were all about securing our energy future, that is what they claimed ever since Ronnie (depends) Reagan started to IGNORE conservation efforts and lied to the American sheeple about what we needed to do to secure the future for ourselves and future generations.....
Why 'peak oil' may soon pique your interest
ReplyDeleteFor years, many in the oil industry viewed the peak oil forecasts by Simmons as odd. Now his position has a lot of company. Several websites publish sophisticated material on the issue. There's the Oil Drum [the one I personally read every day], featuring "Prof. Goose" and "Gail the Actuary." Those pseudonyms hide a full professor at Colorado State University and an actuary in an Atlanta suburb. There's also the Energy Bulletin . The site's coeditor, Bart Anderson, say it receives 11,000 visits a day. Peak oil enthusiasts, he says, have now divided into a majority seeing life after an oil crunch and those he calls "doomers."
In Britain, Douglas Low, director of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre , foresees a "crisis coming up" with a real shortage of oil. In June, he notes, the world used 1.5 MB/D more crude than it produced. He expects much higher oil prices in the future.
"It's not a very happy message," he says. "A lot of people want to slip it under the carpet."
Too bad in a couple of years the carpet won't be large enough to hide the major problems and economic crashes looming from not enough oil for everyone who wants and needs it ....... and no sound bites of Fox Lies will change that one bit.
Clif a quick look at Exxon confirms exactly what you are saying instead of increasing production (if that is even possible), they rely on accounting tricks like share buybacks and ever rising crude prices to propell their stocks higher.
ReplyDeleteThat tells me that peak is either here or several years away because
1) Exxon is either unable to increase production
or.....
2) They are able to increase production but they realize that peak oil VERY close, possibly only several years away and that they can make more profits by driving the stock higher with buybacks and rising crude prices and sitting on those reserves until supply AND demand imbalances drive prices MUCH MUCH higher very shortly.
There is no doubt about it. Peak Oil is here. It arrived last year.
ReplyDeleteThe grab at Iraq, if successful, would have assured us of another decade or so of hegemony. But the wheels done come off that wagon, of course.
There is only one way we can react to this-conservation. Plant sunflowers in the damn Denalis and get used to living with the reality of this world. The next time we go fight over oil, it'll likely be with China, and simply put-they'll win.
jr not necessarily sine neither china or the US has the necessary energy resources either of us need for our economies or militaries.
ReplyDeleteRussia is a different story, but then again they don't need to fight for oil yet.......
BTW India would be a much more obvious opponent for china since they would be competing for new sources in the same regions.....
However only the US and the Soviets to some degree can project it's military forces on a world wide push at the moment, because of lift and logistical limits, which always limits military engagements no matter who is fighting.
BTW if you want a good read about one possible future we face read Jim Kunstler's Clusterf&%k Nation every week.
ReplyDeleteBe forewarned he don't pull his punches, and he isn't very good at fairy tales, like the reichwing trolls like to hear from their lying candidates and talking heads.
But he does write quite good, and he does lay it out as he sees it.
The Chinese don't have to project. We do.
ReplyDeleteMost people would rather accept the Renmibi as payment for their goods anyway, and the Chinese can cut loose their old friends in Pyongyang and tie a good part of our forces up in a hurry. The oil-producing countries could just sit and wait us out, because we would be brought to a crawl in a hurry.
JR here is a story about China you might be interested in;
ReplyDeleteChina's coal production to peak in a couple of years
China faces a large assortment of problems, just not s broken national budget nor economic meltdown like we do at the moment.
They can barely feed their epople and can't find enough energy resources to fuel their expansion beyond the next couple of years.
clif noted,
ReplyDeleteChina faces a large assortment of problems, just not s broken national budget nor economic meltdown like we do at the moment.
They can barely feed their epople and can't find enough energy resources to fuel their expansion beyond the next couple of years.
Yep. I've been watching this with interest. I've also noted that the male to female ratio is getting really lopsided in China.
A bunch of men with no prospects and nothing to lose. Was there ever a better aggressive force-in-waiting?
The Bombers: A Breakdown
ReplyDeleteNames and nationalities of known suicide bombers in Iraq
Updated: 3:01 p.m. ET Aug 2, 2007
This list contains the names and countries of 139 suicide bombers in Iraq. The bombers came from the following countries: Saudi Arabia (53), Iraq (18), Italy (8), Syria (8), Kuwait (7), Jordan (4), Libya (3), Egypt (3), Tunisia (3), Turkey (3), Belgium (2), France (2), Spain (2), Yemen (3), Lebanon (1), Morocco (1), Britain (1), Bengal (1), Sudan (1) and Unknown (18).
(Source: Adapted from "Suicide Bombers in Iraq" by Mohammed M. Hafez)
Funny I don't see Iran on the list, could dead eye be lying again?
and why do we wanna sell the Saudis all those weapons because 6 years after 9-11 they still have quite a few of their citizens who wanna kill Americans.
Jolly the Chinese problems will be mostly logistical, as to how to feed, arm equip and move 20,000,000 men and women under arms.
ReplyDeleteIn fact except for the soviet Union Korea and Vietnam where they can basically walk, they have a very large problem projecting their forces.
As a side note on of the former soviet's worst nightmare was a 100,000,000 man army invading from China then surrendering the next day, which would have totally collapsed the soviet logistical system, which the Chinese would have just repeated in a week as the Soviet military system collapsed trying to handle 200,000,000 POW's in a system which could barely fed the 200,000,000 people they had.
(and we thought we had an illegal immigrant problem)
Unfortunately this guy is not smoking dope;
ReplyDeleteBut fortunately he isn't a republican candidate for president;
Limiting Collateral Damage in a Nuclear War With Iran
by Shmuel Ben-Yehoshua
It is unfortunate that I have to begin this article with the jolt of such a knuckle-whitening title, but I'm deadly serious. Some people who think support for Israel amounts to camping out need to be shaken out of their complacency. In the past, I have called for the use of the neutron bomb on Iran ("Time to Neutron Iran"); and, failing that, use of the hydrogen bomb on Tehran ("Is a Hydrogen Bomb on Tehran Any Better?"), since Iran is so
Just a handful of neutron bombs will be sufficient.
centralized that it is essentially a "one-bomb" country if Tehran is nuked.
Israel now has more Jews than any other country. Ehud Olmert and his left-wing wife cannot be allowed to destroy 5,000 years of Jewish history simply because, like Saul, he wants to show mercy on Amalek. He needs to be removed from office immediately so that Israel can take robust military action against Iran. Anyone who delays this, no matter what the political gain for the right-wing as Olmert implodes politically, is an Iran enabler.
He bases his argument on this;
The IAEA found in Iran polonium-210, used almost exclusively for making A-bomb triggers. Since polonium-210 has a half-life of only 138 days, it is highly perishable and only made when use of an atom bomb is imminent. Iran is about to nuke Israel. Iran must be nuked first.
Too bad for his argument, wiki article on Polonium 210 says this;
According to the book The Bomb in the Basement, several death cases in Israel during 1957-1969 were caused by 210Po.[37] A leak was discovered at a Weizmann Institute laboratory in 1957. Traces of 210Po were found on the hands of Prof. Dror Sadeh, a physicist who researched radioactive materials. Medical tests indicated no harm, but the tests did not include bone marrow. Sadeh died prematurely from cancer. One of his students died of leukemia, and two colleagues died after a few years, both from cancer. The issue was investigated secretly, and there was never any formal admission that a connection between the leak and the deaths had existed.
Since thew Israeli's had the very same element in 1957, but NEVER nuked anybody his whole argument is as bogus as any of the reichwingers who wanna nuke Iran or Syria, or Mecca for that point.
Tom Tancredo has a soul mate in Israel.........too bad they are ever taken seriously at all.
Mike, GOOD WORK and thank you for all your research.
ReplyDeleteClif, thanks for these articles too.
Not a nice forecast, but one that should be listened to;
ReplyDeleteUpdated World Oil Forecasts, including Saudi Arabia
Executive Summary
1. World total liquids supply production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.
2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.
3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
4. World C&C year on year production changes to March 2007 and April 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia; significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia has probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
5. Key producer Saudi Arabia recently released an updated project schedule which does not show originally scheduled expansions of Shaybah phase 2, 0.25 mbd and Al Khafji Neutral Zone, 0.30 mbd. Consequently, it is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10).
6. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 11). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 12). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 13).
In depth discussion and all figures at the link ....
BTW it looks like the hedge funds are selling their oil futures to cover the shorts they have due to the sub prime melt down ......
ReplyDeletehence the crashing price of crude.
As a side note on of the former soviet's worst nightmare was a 100,000,000 man army invading from China then surrendering the next day, which would have totally collapsed the soviet logistical system, which the Chinese would have just repeated in a week as the Soviet military system collapsed trying to handle 200,000,000 POW's in a system which could barely fed the 200,000,000 people they had.
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely. But that was then, and this is now. While the Chinese aren't yet able to project their forces very far outward (a trait we will soon enough share with them,) in this era it is their economic muscle that will win the day for them. As I said, the oil producers would much rather sell to somebody who isn't circulating funny money, and the renmibi isn't funny money at all. To beat us at this game, the Chinese need only to tie us down in one spot. The rest of it will take care of itself.
We're gonna wind up with no Armed Force projection capability AND no energy resources outside of the Americas.
For those of you keeping track....
ReplyDeleteThe Home Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter.
Consider this people, Bush started his spy program BEFORE 9/11thats right before, so if he and eveyone else claims the spy program is BECAUSE of 9/11 we need to start asking questions such as
ReplyDelete1) WHY did the spy program start BEFORE 9/11 and if it did why was it so ineffective in preventing 9/11
2) Why would Bush want to spy on ALL American citizens and better yet WHY would he want to do it before the terrosits attacks of 9/11 that according to him supposedly changed and justified EVERYTHING.
We NEED to start asking questions and asking the RIGHT questions if you want to prevent us from going down a destructive path to oblivion and misery with no like return for generations.
I say Bush started the spy program almost immediately after coming to power and before 9/11 to help him implent his plan to seize ultimate power by learning EXACTLY who his enemies were so he could blaickmail his political opponents and the powerful early on and later to seize his opponents assets or imprison them.
I'm sure Bush has lists of EVERYONE who oppose him, now imagine after declaring martial law people who oppose GWB start disapearing or the assets of millions who oppose him are all seized and used to buy the loyalty of his brownshirts, imagine many of the poor who are starving and cant feed their families because of the calamity that allowed Bush to declare martial law are suddenly given the option to let their familes starve or to become Bush's brownshirt stormtroopers and do his bidding in which case they will be given a good portion of the confiscated war spoils and possibly comfortable 6 figure incomes or their equivalent...........that formula has been used throughout history to seize and maintain power in military police states, everyone ALWAYS thinks things are different today and history cant repeat itself and THAT think is precisely what helps to make it possible.
Many people seem to act and think that the Bush administration is a legitimate administration ,merely behaving badly or run amuk............I say they have planned a coup to seize ultimate power for a VERY long time rumors say there were plans in the 1970's by MANY of the same Reich Wing idealogues to conquor a oil rich Middle Eastern country. PNAC has a clearly outlined plan for world domination they just needed the time and justification for implementing said plan 9/11 happed EARLY enough in Bush''s administration to have the time to fully implement the plan to seize power and it happened during and despite Bush's spy program that he claims is to keep us safe from terrorists...........consider that one long and hard.
Bush started his spy program BEFORE 9/11...............ask yourself WHY?
Bush is using or I should say wasting alot of resources to spy on ALL Americans not just outgoing international calls to suspected terrorists.........ask your self WHY???
The MSM is starting to cry to Bernanke for a rate cut, I dont think it will happen barring some unexpectedly horrific data till the end of the year the Fed is walking a tightrope trying to defend the dollar and I think their focus will be on the dollar rather than reviving the economy until they see the whites of the economies eyes and its ready to give up the ghost.
ReplyDeleteFed's Dilemma: US Dollar or US Consumer
ReplyDeleteVolatility and Sector Reallocation
Boris Sobolev
Resource Stock Guide
www.ResourceStockGuide.com
It was another turbulent week on Wall Street with mounting worries about the credit markets. A rebound in the US stock markets was short lived but allowed for conditions to become less oversold before the heavy sell-off continued.
For the week, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Industrials are down 1%, the Nasdaq is down 2%, Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) is down 4%, while gold is up almost 2%. Gold and gold stocks are showing their countercyclical character and appear to be stabilizing. However, it is too early to draw any major conclusions.
Volatility remains high and there is a lot of selling driven by fear. The Volatility Index (VIX) closed at a 4-year high on Friday. While the index will fall when the market rebounds, we do not believe that it will come back to the lower teens where it has been over the last few years. The fragile nature of the "Credit Bubble Economy" is now becoming evident to many investors and complacency levels should be decreasing as we enter more worrisome times.
A high volatility level is also a sign that many indices, including the S&P 500, are experiencing sector reshuffling. After the collapse of the Nasdaq, the financial stocks have become the largest component in the US equity markets. It appears the time has come for a change of guard once again. With an ongoing credit squeeze hurting the sector, Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) dropped over 13% in less than three weeks on huge volume.
As of June 30, 2007, financials weighed more than one fifth in the S&P 500 Index (based on market capitalization). This is quickly changing. Energy, Materials and Health Care are bound to take a bigger share in the index.
We shall see what happens to the financial stocks and whether confidence will be restored to the credit markets. It will be interesting to refer to the above chart six months from now.
US Dollar or US Consumer
For now, the most noteworthy event the market observers are looking forward to is the FOMC meeting on August 7 and the market's reaction to the meeting's outcome. Our best guess is that the committee will support the markets and give hope of a rate cut despite the weak dollar. In fact, the dollar itself has already priced in a loosening monetary policy and such a move by the Fed may not cause the dollar to break down below its multi-year support level in the following weeks or even months. The leading indicator to watch is gold, not the dollar, and from a technical perspective (gold is still far from making new highs) it is not signaling any major changes at this time.
A sudden rate cut will send the wrong signal to the markets indicating that the Fed is panicking. Likewise, language short of being dovish could be another excuse to produce a selloff in the markets. What will probably happen is that the Fed will set the stage for a rate cut later this year. But for now it can use other means at its disposal to boost money supply. It may work this time. As long as the confidence level in the world financial system remains relatively high, the central bankers will be able to continue building a house of cards. Yet the free market forces are immeasurably more powerful than the bankers. With irreversible deterioration of confidence in the modern financial system, the end of this game is in sight. All it would take is for foreigners to stop purchasing US debt.
Will the current decline in the stock market remain a correction or turn into the first leg of the coming bear market? That will depend on whether the problems in the leveraged credit markets spread to consumers already drowning in a sea of mortgage debt. In October, the amount of mortgage debt that is scheduled for its first interest rate adjustment is expected to top $50 billion, the highest number ever. It will remain above $30 billion per month until the middle of 2008. And since the credit problems are no longer a subprime issue alone, banks may be reluctant to lend at low rates without further encouragement from the Fed.
The Fed is faced with a dilemma: salvage the US dollar or the US consumer. The consumer will almost certainly prevail.
Remember this to qualify as a bull or bear market the stock market has o go up or down 20%............now adjusted for inflation to put us in a TRUE bull market according to MY calculations of the REAL rate of inflation the Dow would have to hit 21,000, even using the Feds bogus inflation stats the Dow would have to hit 17, 500 inflation adjusted to signal a new bull market..........like i've said we are in a cyclical bull market sucker rally in a long term secular bear market and keep in mind most secular bear markets last around 18 years.
ReplyDeleteKaren DeYoung and Thomas E. Ricks at WaPo have an excellent overview of the collapsing security and political situation in Basra. What most American observers do not realize is that as Basra goes, so goes Iraq.
ReplyDeleteAs British forces pull back from Basra in southern Iraq, Shiite militias there have escalated a violent battle against each other for political supremacy and control over oil resources, deepening concerns among some U.S. officials in Baghdad that elements of Iraq's Shiite-dominated national government will turn on one another once U.S. troops begin to draw down.
Three major Shiite political groups are locked in a bloody conflict that has left the city in the hands of militias and criminal gangs, whose control extends to municipal offices and neighborhood streets. The city is plagued by "the systematic misuse of official institutions, political assassinations, tribal vendettas, neighborhood vigilantism and enforcement of social mores, together with the rise of criminal mafias that increasingly intermingle with political actors," a recent report by the International Crisis Group said.
All of the US Military's logistics travel on roads through or right around Basra, which means if the stability of that city falls completely apart, so does the re-supply situation for US troops in Iraq.......
Just how bad is the situation?
"The British have basically been defeated in the south," a senior U.S. intelligence official said recently in Baghdad. They are abandoning their former headquarters at Basra Palace, where a recent official visitor from London described them as "surrounded like cowboys and Indians" by militia fighters. An airport base outside the city, where a regional U.S. Embassy office and Britain's remaining 5,500 troops are barricaded behind building-high sandbags, has been attacked with mortars or rockets nearly 600 times over the past four months.
(snip)
The ICG study described Iran, Britain and the United States as equally confused about what is happening in Basra. During a recent visit there, the U.S. official said, he was unable to meet with any local Iraqis outside the airport base or to travel beyond the secured route between the base and the palace. About 200 Americans are in and around the city, including those assigned to the embassy office, some civilian support personnel and contract security guards.
(snip)
The current U.S. security operation to "clear, hold and build" in Baghdad and its surroundings is almost a replica of Operation Sinbad, which British and Iraqi forces conducted in Basra from September 2006 to March of this year with a mission of "clear, hold and civil reconstruction." Although Operation Sinbad initially succeeded in lowering crime and political assassinations, attacks rose in the spring and British forces withdrew into their compounds.
Doesn't sound very encouraging for either the over all situation, nor the long term effects of "Bush's stupid surge in Iraq".
Looks like this combined with the almost certain collapse of the Maliki Government in the next year, the surge was a "fooles errand" triumphed by the Foole In Chief.
Too bad the neo-cons and their sycophants will try to lie about the real affects of the surge like they lied about the insurgency and civil war last year.....
Heck of a job Georgie......
Bush started his spy program BEFORE 9/11...............ask yourself WHY?
ReplyDeleteWe've been told the hapless Bush administration wrote the so-called USA Patriot Act in its entirety in the weeks following 9/11.
I simply don't accept this.
The so-called USA Patriot Act (and the USA Patriot Act II) is so far-reaching, so draconian in its assault on civil liberties, the Bill of Rights and Constitution that I think and I believe, they had much if not all of it, written BEFORE 9/11.
Just as Hitler had his Reichstag to begin unraveling the rights of the German people, Bush had 9/11 as a pretext to begin the implementation of the so-called USA Patriot Act.
Chris, I think you are right on the money with this one, I also think the "Patriot" Act was written well before 9/11 these clowns were planning to attack Iraq BEFORE they ever came to power they were discussion attacking Iraq at Bush juniors inaugeration and the day of 9/11 they were CLEARLY trying to twist things to justify an attack on Iraq.............9/11 was the modernm day Reichstag fire it was the great enabler for Bush and his pack of Neo Con Fools!
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteI based this on the fact that Dick Cheney, Inc. was planning the Iraq war while the SCOTUS (5 banana Republicans in black robes) were figuring out out how to toss out 7,000 Democratic ballots from Miami Dade and steal the 2000 presidential election.
Nothing on this level is an accident.
Oh, it's a bull market, all right. You'll seldom run into more bullsh*t than you're seeing now.
ReplyDeleteclif said...
ReplyDeleteBTW it looks like the hedge funds are selling their oil futures to cover the shorts they have due to the sub prime melt down ......
hence the crashing price of crude.
To a degree, you;re right, Clif.
The hedge fund market is an odd duck, but one I have an awful lot of familiarity with. Most hedge funds specialize in sector trading, say biotechnology, or regional trading, like China.
Many do trade in oil and energy, of course, but would get strung up if they invested in industries away from their base. Investors in hedge funds already have gobs of money and use hedges to specifically target their financial exposures.
I've seen it happen: a fund will be in healthcare and then casually mention currency hedges, and the next thing you know, the fund manager is being sued for misappropriation of funds.
Certainly, the sell-off of futures in a market that's as overheated as this one has some part in the crash of oil prices, but, it's happened way too suddenly for it to be the major reason. My guess is the commodities exchanges are satisfied that there will be sufficient crude and refining capacity into October.
Sorry Carl but the sell off is world wide NOT just in America.....
ReplyDeleteThe sell off is about 10% so far even as the Saudis refuse to raise their output, which means it is NOT supply or demand driven, but something else.
BTW if not people who invested at the 55 dollar a barrel level in Jan who wanna get out while oil was over 70 dollars a barrel who?
BTW Fed leaves fund rates unchanged, and Dow goes into falling motion almost immediately .... and Jim Cranmer is still crying over the greedy bastards who set up this fiasco in the first place.
ReplyDeleteAnnouncing the first annual Blog World Report Awards. Please drop by today and make your nominations in six categories. Thanks!
ReplyDeleteWait till the end of the year when we REALLY do enter recession and not only is there real demand destruction but the powers that be purposely manipulate the price of crude down to help dishonestly cook their bogus CPI numbers that are shamelessly understated.
ReplyDeleteA Red Play for The Golden State
ReplyDeleteThere's some malicious mischief at play in efforts to reform our electoral system.
Jonathan Alter
Is California GOP Trying to Steal the 2008 Election?
There's some malicious mischief at play to reform our electoral system
By Jonathan Alter
Newsweek
Aug. 13, 2007 issue - Our way of electing presidents has always been fertile ground for mischief. But there's sensible mischief—toying with existing laws and the Constitution to reflect popular will—and then there's the other kind, which tries to rig admission to the Electoral College for strictly partisan purposes. Mischief-makers in California (Republicans) and North Carolina (Democrats) are at work on changes that would subvert the system for momentary advantage and—in ways the political world is only beginning to understand—dramatically increase the odds that a Republican will be elected president in 2008.
Right now, every state except Nebraska and Maine awards all of its electoral votes to the popular-vote winner in that state. So in mammoth California, John Kerry beat George W. Bush and won all 55 electoral votes, more than one fifth of the 270 necessary for election.
Instead of laboring in vain to turn California Red, a clever lawyer for the state Republican Party thought of a gimmicky shortcut. Thomas Hiltachk, who specializes in ballot referenda that try to fool people in the titles and fine print, is sponsoring a ballot initiative for the June 3, 2008, California primary (which now falls four months after the state's presidential primary). The Presidential Election Reform Act would award the state's electoral votes based on who wins each congressional district. Had this idea been in effect in 2004, Bush would have won 22 electoral votes from California, about the same number awarded the winners of states like Illinois or Pennsylvania. In practical terms, adopting the initiative would mean that the Democratic candidate would likely have to win both Ohio and Florida in 2008 (instead of one or the other) to be elected.
Hiltachk, who is lying low for now, is a former campaign lawyer for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. The governor's office says Schwarzenegger has no position on the initiative and "had absolutely nothing to do with its development." But whichever way Schwarzenegger goes, several GOP presidential candidates and their financial backers have already offered to help boost the plan. Just interested in good government? They've shown a curious lack of interest in backing the same idea in Red States.
CONTINUED
Presumably, the argument to voters in TV ads would be to "make your vote count" and bring the presidential candidates back to California, which has been so reliably Democratic in recent elections that it receives few postprimary visits from candidates in either party. The Democrats would likely counter by saying that Republicans are trying a backhanded way to corrupt the election. With the presidential nominations settled by the time the initiative would be put up to vote, expect big money to be spent on both sides trying to win over the wild cards of California politics—the millions of independents.
Congressional districts, whose lines are drawn by backroom deals, are a weak structure for picking a president. With only three or four of California's districts up for grabs (as a result of gerrymandering, which keeps them noncompetitive), the state would be visited by the candidates only slightly more often under the Hiltachk plan than under the status quo. And if the idea was somehow adopted nationally, it would mean competing for votes in only about 60 far-flung congressional districts—roughly 7 percent of the country. Everyone else's vote would not "count," if you want to look at it that way.
The monkey business underway this month in North Carolina is just as egregious—though with only three or four electoral votes at stake, probably less consequential. Democrats, who usually lose the state in presidential contests but control the legislature and the governor's mansion, make no secret of their desire to win partisan advantage by going to the congressional-district formula.
At least in North Carolina it's clearly constitutional. Article II, Section I of the U.S. Constitution stipulates that the selection of electors is up to state legislatures "in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct." When power is delegated to the electorate in referenda, the legal authority gets fuzzy; the Constitution, of course, supersedes state law. In any event, the Hiltachk referendum will face a challenge in court.
Is there a better way to make every vote count? Yes, and it doesn't require a constitutional amendment abolishing the Electoral College. All it would take is some good mischief in state legislatures. In February, a bipartisan coalition of former senators led by Birch Bayh, Jake Garn and Dave Durenberger unveiled a campaign for a national popular vote. Under the plan, state legislatures would pass bills that pledged to award their state's electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. It's not clear which party this would help, but if adopted by as few as 11 states, it would guarantee that the candidate with the most votes actually won the election. Anybody got a problem with that?
Mike said...
ReplyDeleteWait till the end of the year when we REALLY do enter recession and not only is there real demand destruction but the powers that be purposely manipulate the price of crude down to help dishonestly cook their bogus CPI numbers that are shamelessly understated.
------------------
Mike:
Yes and the resets on ARM's will affect half a million families in October too.. <:(
I got this yesterday...
ReplyDeleteBreaking News 08/06/07!
Cerberus, National City Units Halt Applications
Aegises, National City Home Equity are latest to stop offering home loans
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Units of Cerberus Capital Management LP and National City Corp. stopped taking home loan applications on Monday, becoming the latest to be hit by turmoil in the mortgage market.
Aegis Mortgage Corp., a mortgage lender that's part-owned by private-equity firm Cerberus, suspended all loan originations on Monday. Aegis also is unable to fund home loans that are already in its pipeline, spokeswoman Pat Wente said.
Clif,
ReplyDeleteOil prices this week are like the weather in New England: don't like it? Give it a minute.
I checked the NYMEX before I left this evening, and futures for gasoline and heating oil popped back up. This could simply be the markets catching up, but I expect crude prices to start to inch higher as well.
While hedge funds played a part, to be sure, there were other important factors, such as refinery capacity which I mentioned last post, and the fact that US refined reserves have risen this week, which means less need for crude.
Carl it is NOT just the West Texas crude price which tanked but Brent, Tapis, Bonny Light. Louisiana Light, Urals Minas, and Forties, which means all crude, all over the world, which means the US refinery situation was NOT the catalyst for this move, but hedge funds and other players needing quick money to cover sub prime losses is much more likely....
ReplyDeleteFascism is alive and well in the U.S. today because there are millions of Americans who won't stand up for democracy.
ReplyDeleteBeginning with the House of Pelosi and a faction of DINO Democrats in the Seante who keep rolling over and making nicey-nicey with George Bush.
The sheeple of Murika had better the hell wake up.
Hello, again, guys! Been a very busy and crazy few weeks. But I wanted to pop in and see what you guys are talking about.
ReplyDeleteThe violations are just accepted by most people under the crazy rationale "if you aren't doing anything wrong, what are you worried about" twist. Many people dont see implications, or the slippery slope. Or the way that fear has been turned against us.
PS congrats by the way on the Koufax, I wasn't here for the earlier post. But you guys do a great job! Good for you!
Another reichwing closet case "outs himself" sorta,
ReplyDeletejust before he was arrested ;
Details here;
GOP closeted perverts,
the gift that keeps on giving.....
lydia- i felt the same way when i watched it. while we will continue to fight, i hold out little hope for the future of civil liberties or america as it stood. the constitution is almost completely shredded and most of us are too busy buying stuff to notice.
ReplyDeletenicely done larry! :)
Lydia Excellent radio show as usual, I just listened to Mondays show on FISA and you made a great point that the Democrats not only showed cowardice by approving his illegal spy program but they legitimized it and gave it validity....................They gave Gonzalez a man they and the rest of the world are calling an incompetent liar the responsibility to head up a program that Bush CLAIMS is to protect us............how do you go back and challenge Gonzalez competence NOW when you just voted to give him the power and responsibility to oversee a program that is CLAIMED to protect our country.
ReplyDeleteThe Democrats NOT only showed extreme cowardice but even worse showed they have extremely poor judgement, they fell into a trap wherein if they NOW try to impeach Gonzalez for corruption, poor judgement, incompetence and criminality the repugs can say but you guys just voted to give him the responsibility to protect us from the big bad terrorists...........how could you vote to give an incompetent criminal that kind of responsibility.
The Moral is dont give the barbarians the keys to the gates of Rome then cry when they rape, pilage and ransack every village in the city.
Lydia, I just watched the Bourne Idenity..........Great movie, I think i'm going to go out and see the New one this weekend...................Worf I bought Enemy of the State as well..........
ReplyDeleteGWB's NEW mantra and dishonest tactic or game is to endlessly parrot how we need to listen to the experts and generals on the ground in Iraq..........too bad this lying piece of human waste is too hippocritical to practice what he actually preaches..........When General Shinseki a true military expert disagreed with him and his preconceived ideology that a small force was adaquate Bush and his attack dogs tarred and feathered him, they attacked and attemped to discredit him in any and EVERY way possible.......this sent a CLEAR message to the other generals not to disagree with the White House or they would be fired and discredited.
ReplyDeleteBush and his arrogant pompous cabal of chicken hawks who avoided fighting for their country when it was their turn and never served in the military went in half cocked against military advice with too small of a force that was under equiped.
Bush CLAIMS he listens to his generals, intelligence experts and people on the ground............thats a bald faced lie!
He disregarded Shinseki a general who was proven absolutlely right, When the CIA issued a comprehenisive authoriative analysis of the Chaos, Iraqi resentment, likelyhood of a civil war, increased Islamic Fundamentalism and violence, deep rifts and divisions in Iraqi society and an insurgency and guerilla war aimed at US soldiers among other dire consequences and this analysis was presented to Bush, Bush chose to surpress the warnings by US intelligence and conceal them from the public because it weakened his flawed logic and twisted ideology.
Bush CLAIMS to listen to his generals, intelligence experts and people on the ground..........YET when the man HE chose to handle Iraq policy Paul Bremmer repeatyedly told Bush there were insufficicient troops on the ground to make the policy a success, Bush was simultaneously talking out of the other side of his mouth CLAIMING to the American public that we had MORE than enough troops in Iraq and that he was relying on the American leaders in Bagdad for their oppinion that no more trops were needed. Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez's repeated desperate pleas for more equipment and body armor to protect the troops fell on deaf ears yet Bush CLAIMS to listen to his people and to protect the troops.
The lies of the Reich Wing are so blatant and absurd its riddiculous........yet the men we elect to represent us and make key decisions seem to lack the wit and intelligence to counter them.
ReplyDeleteWorfeus is absolutely right we need Strong intelligent people to put out there to challenge and battle the Reich Wing deceivers in the MSM........instead of the scarecrows the left puts out there we need people like Olberman, Ritter, Basham etc.............Doug Basham my not be well known in the MSM but he absolutely shreds the Rights lies mantras and dishonest talking points. Lydia I hope when your book comes out you put yoursdelf out there on the political talk shows because we desperately NEED intelligent people who have facts and logic at their disposal to counter the fear and lies.
whats sad to me is we have many schmoes on this blog capable of shredding and disecting the Right Wings lies and dishonest talking points yet our own congress and the people we put out there in the MSM to represent our position lack the wit and intelligence to do this.
THe Bush Administration is built on a foundation of lies.......Cheney bristled at the NY Times for daring to state the truth that there was no Al Qaeda/Saddam tie, Cheney then dared to say there was NO fundamental split between Bush's outrageous lies and the Commission.
ReplyDeleteCheney went on to deny he had ever personally ben responsible for trying to create the false illusion of a linkage between Al Qaeda and Iraq.
Of Course Jon Stewart outed the liar when he played Cheney's outright denial that he ever stated Iraqi intelligence met with Al Qaeda in Prague..........then Stewart froze Cheneys ugly mug on the screen and played the EXACT video of when Cheney had stated that very thing in the EXACT words he had denied. After catching the Vice President on video in a blatant bald faced lie Stewart addressed Cheney's frozen likeness on scren and said"Its my duty to inform you that your pants are on fire"
Big news! We're having JOHN EDWARDS on our show Friday. We're interviewing him on Thursday as a pre-record and will air the interview on Friday morning on Basham and Cornell Progressive Talk.
ReplyDeleteI am so excited. He is one of my heroes.
We're having JOHN EDWARDS on our show Friday.
ReplyDeleteVery cool!
Will Elizabeth Edwards be ther too?
Wow Larry-
ReplyDeleteYou described our reality today perfectly. This is a great education piece.
I especially appreciated this:
"The Senate, who is controlled by the Democratic majority was told by George W Bush, that they couldn't go on their month long summer vacation until they agreed on his desire to spy on every American."
Glad to hear you're going to feature John Edwards on your show Lydia. I'm still supporting him. He's lost some ground and needs all the exposure he can get.
ReplyDeleteI think he's going to end up with the endorsement of organized labor, but I also think they'll make him "sweat it" for a while. And really, that's nothing out of the ordinary. I think their majority already supports him since he's been out there in the trenches with them a lot more than any of the other candidates.
After all, the bosses don't know how they're voting (regardless of endorsement) when they go into those booths alone. Right?
JR China don't need no stinkin' military, cause they got lots and lots and lots of dollars to sell, which will cause our economy to collapse without the Chinese firing a shot.
ReplyDeleteAnd Lil' Georgie can'
t do anything about it, cause he borrowed so many dollars from the Chinese already.
China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:54am BST 08/08/2007
The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
# Blog - Dollar to collapse?
Fistful of dollars - China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June
Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.
Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation".
Mr Paulson is a China expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the waters.
Robert - that is so cool, LEFT OF CENTRIST is hosting a great new blogger awards..
ReplyDeleteCheck out Robert Rouse at Left of Centrist and vote for your favorite blog.
Chuck and Christopher,
ReplyDeletethank you...
Mike you both deserve Most Thought-Provoking blogger award. Great work as usual
And Larry, thank you for this excellent article.
I realize awards are sort of ego-based but actually they call attention to great ideas.
ReplyDeleteSo Mike and Clif both deserve separate awards...
Lydia Cornell said...
ReplyDeleteBig news! We're having JOHN EDWARDS on our show Friday. We're interviewing him on Thursday as a pre-record and will air the interview on Friday morning on Basham and Cornell Progressive Talk.
I am so excited. He is one of my heroes.
--------------------
Hi Lydia!
COOL! I adore John Edwards! :)
Hi Lydia!
ReplyDeleteI was looking for Too Close for Comfort sites, and saw the link to your blogs.
I love what you have to say.
I can't agree more.
Keep up the great work, and I will write later.
George Vreeland Hill
georgevreelandhill@msn.com
Clif,
ReplyDeleteUS refineries refine whatever oil we get, import or domestic.
Lydia,
ReplyDeleteTell John that I voted for him in 2004, but I won't be voting for him this time around. I think he stands no chance of winning, for one thing, with the enormous mistakes he's made on his own right (tell him Melissa McEwen at Shakespeare's Sister is someone I respect a lot), and that he hasn't distinguished himself.
Clif,
ReplyDeleteSome great commentary on that China story here
Hello Lydia and everyone; I agree with Lydia that Mike is the best blogger here; and Larry and JollyRoger contribute nothing to the debate. Good choice Lydia.
ReplyDeleteI think that it all boils down to sloth, poor education, and greed. That's where our freedoms have gone.
ReplyDeleteMandy,
ReplyDeleteI'm not listing people. Off the top of my head I just wanted to thank Mike because he's been working overtime lately. He's a prolific commenter.
You must be kidding about Larry and Jolly Roger.
They ARE FANTASTIC, in fact, Larry is my blog contributor and I love Jolly Roger!
When I pop in, I don't have time to list or remember everyone's names all at once, and it's only when I notice something.
There is really no competition.
Larry and Jolly Roger deserve awards too.
ReplyDeleteI have thanked Larry profusely for his great posts.
Actually because Larry has been writing all the posts lately, he should be nominated in a separate category.
John Edwards called Basham this morning and said he was listening to our show and loves it.
He mentioned us having his wife Elizabeth on our show too in the coming months.
Carl said...
ReplyDeleteClif,
US refineries refine whatever oil we get, import or domestic.
Yes Carl except for the million barrels plus of refined gasoline we import every day to compliment what the US refineries can't make fast enough.....
Since the requests for crude is rising much faster in China, India, Russia and other countries at a greater rate then the US they have a bigger affect on the international oil market, especially since we only use about 22 million barrels of the 85+ million barrels of oil used each and every day on this planet.
Can someone explain why "Mandy" is using Deborah Shelton's image?
ReplyDeleteHere is theOriginal Image which if you check the Link to it shows Deborah Shelton NOT Mandy in the header........
Looks like somebody wants to start a disagreement between bloggers over NOTHING but her? own stupid opinion.
John Edwards?
ReplyDeleteYou guys got JOHN EDWARDS?
Far freakin out.
Lydia Cornell said...
ReplyDeleteJohn Edwards called Basham this morning and said he was listening to our show and loves it.
That is so freaking cool. I won't miss this one!
Suzie, sorry I didn't realize you nominated our blog! I am going to nominate you.
ReplyDeleteThank you Suzie.
I have been having trouble logging on or publishing, so we'll see how it goes.
Back in town next week.
xo
Lyd
Carl here is a good article from the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas which explains why the search for new oil sources is not all some pretend;
ReplyDeleteUpstream Economics and the Future Oil Supply
A little technical, but the basic problems should be apparent.
They ARE FANTASTIC, in fact, Larry is my blog contributor and I love Jolly Roger!
ReplyDeleteIs it possible to see a blush in cyberspace?
Thank you for what you're doing. The awards you get, you earned. Larry deserves an award all by himself; this guy encourages the startups and gets them talking. He's pumping up a lot of good people out there, letting them know that someone is reading-and thinking.
I can't seem to publish the new thread. It keeps going away.
ReplyDeleteThank you Jolly Roger and Lydia. The same could and should be said about both of you.
ReplyDeleteMandy:
ReplyDeleteI realize I may not contribute to the debate, but if you can't get anything from what Jolly Roger and Lydia bring to the "debate" through their blogs and writings, maybe you should find a different debate, as you are missing something here.
Today, my political imagery site was visited by the Treasury, the Executive Office of Asset Forfeiture to be exact, and the Pentagon, both within a few minutes of each other.
ReplyDeleteI removed the I.P. address from each visit, which follow:
Domain Name treas.gov ? (U.S. Government)
IP Address (Executive Office of Asset Forfeiture)
ISP Executive Office of Asset Forfeiture
Location Continent : North America
Country : United States (Facts)
State : Virginia
City : Dulles
Lat/Long : 39.0853, -77.6452 (Map)
Language English (U.S.)
en-us
Operating System Microsoft WinXP
Browser Firefox
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.8.1.6) Gecko/20070725 Firefox/2.0.0.6
Javascript version 1.5
Monitor Resolution : 1280 x 1024
Color Depth : 32 bits
Time of Visit Aug 10 2007 8:01:10 am
Last Page View Aug 10 2007 8:01:10 am
Visit Length 0 seconds
Page Views 1
Referring URL
http://images.google...ages%3Fq%3Dcongratul
Search Engine
images.google.com
Search Words
congratul
Visit Entry Page http://www.light-to-...congratulations.html
Visit Exit Page http://www.light-to-...congratulations.html
Out Click
Time Zone UTC-5:00
Visitor's Time Aug 10 2007 11:01:10 am
Visit Number 8,567
By Details > Visit Detail
Visit 8,568
[>>]
Domain Name af.mil ? (Military)
IP Address (The Pentagon)
ISP The Pentagon
Location Continent : North America
Country : United States (Facts)
State : District of Columbia
City : Washington
Lat/Long : 38.8933, -77.0146 (Map)
Language English (U.S.)
en-us
Operating System Microsoft WinXP
Browser Firefox
Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.8.1.6) Gecko/20070725 Firefox/2.0.0.6
Javascript version 1.5
Monitor Resolution : 1280 x 960
Color Depth : 32 bits
Time of Visit Aug 10 2007 8:06:42 am
Last Page View Aug 10 2007 8:07:09 am
Visit Length 27 seconds
Page Views 5
Referring URL
Visit Entry Page http://www.light-to-dark.com/
Visit Exit Page http://www.light-to-...n_Pitt_Cartoons.html
Out Click
Time Zone UTC-5:00
Visitor's Time Aug 10 2007 11:06:42 am
Visit Number 8,568
----------
Regards
Maybe NOW Americans can realize the source roots of authoritarianism in communist Russia, in China, in the middle east ...
ReplyDeleteWhen there is a vague or real threat, the governments BECOME totalitarian! It's just natural!
The problem in th eUS is that this neo conservative "regime" has fabricated and engineered the threat against its own population to JUSTIFY its dictatorship!